TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rebels Gamingof Rebels Gaming, HAVU
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked HAVU48c8,420$4,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,023.761,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed HAVU6c2,842$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.571,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f9…4df8backed Rebels Gaming53c2,216$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.9218356.3%103 W · 80 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed HAVU45c2,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91064058.1%372 W · 268 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…6eacbacked HAVU45c1,875$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84320358.1%118 W · 85 L+22.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e9e…102abacked HAVU47c1,765$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.269757.7%56 W · 41 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Rebels Gaming51c1,353$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.9134140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed HAVU4c1,214$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6716051.3%82 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Rebels Gaming54c1,170$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.762,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Rebels Gaming57c1,111$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Rebels Gaming48c1,111$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.3778043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Rebels Gaming39c1,069$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.362,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed HAVU6c1,030$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5216036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed HAVU38c1,007$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.8623333%77 W · 156 L-22.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8bd…b7aabacked HAVU50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004454.5%24 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Rebels Gaming51c973.3$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.6519840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked HAVU9c875.05$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.372,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Rebels Gaming50c839.63$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.8291648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…5f4fbacked Rebels Gaming45c773.99$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.39977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Rebels Gaming18c759.76$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.695,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed HAVU52c714.33$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2645465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked HAVU6c700$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2539.4%5 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HAVU12c649.83$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.255,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Rebels Gaming42c637.89$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.2491743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked HAVU38c616.41$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23622954.6%125 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked HAVU49c591.96$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.927753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x050e…d92fbacked HAVU45c574.74$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.0422257.2%127 W · 95 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed HAVU50c557.59$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.632,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked HAVU2c543.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.451102.7%3 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Rebels Gaming74c520.73$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.923,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…9589backed Rebels Gaming58c517.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.2329455.8%164 W · 130 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Rebels Gaming51c504$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.9623732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d1…430ebacked Rebels Gaming57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2153100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed HAVU46c492.47$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.364,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Rebels Gaming56c490.34$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.7526650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Rebels Gaming57c485$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5549651.2%254 W · 242 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked HAVU27c440.52$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.947735.1%27 W · 50 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked HAVU5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016311.7%19 W · 144 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Rebels Gaming49c386.31$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.024438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Rebels Gaming51c381$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.1328455.6%158 W · 126 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Rebels Gaming51c367.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.036437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed HAVU41c362.19$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.51,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked HAVU61c353.98$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9216355.8%91 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked HAVU18c351.79$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3636440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Rebels Gaming46c336.66$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.667,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed HAVU49c335.6$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0918754%101 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Rebels Gaming50c323.58$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.341,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…0813backed Rebels Gaming78c321.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5620067%134 W · 66 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddbc…5dcebacked Rebels Gaming51c311.58$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Rebels Gaming57c295$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8512946.5%60 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked HAVU41c291.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.932,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a4…895bbacked HAVU44c278.83$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Rebels Gaming59c269.15$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3525147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Rebels Gaming40c268.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.349941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Rebels Gaming75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6715857.6%91 W · 67 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Rebels Gaming59c266.1$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.119245.8%88 W · 104 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6a…9a1fbacked Rebels Gaming51c259.59$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.26100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+119.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Rebels Gaming47c255.07$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0717449.4%86 W · 88 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed HAVU62c255$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1648635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed HAVU4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101190.8%1 W · 118 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Rebels Gaming58c248.69$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4535449.7%176 W · 178 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…48efbacked HAVU48c238.54$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.525453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked HAVU33c236.09$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9120935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed HAVU49c232.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4921159.7%126 W · 85 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Rebels Gaming51c215.69$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6910541%43 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked HAVU57c208$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4620248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked HAVU41c207.37$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.027447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Rebels Gaming57c203.52$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.94,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Rebels Gaming50c202.7$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3546447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0e…2becbacked Rebels Gaming51c196$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.041662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7542…defdbacked Rebels Gaming51c183.57$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Rebels Gaming48c183.26$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.874,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Rebels Gaming58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8391945.8%421 W · 498 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed HAVU33c168.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9580942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeff…42fbbacked Rebels Gaming45c168.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.165754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed Rebels Gaming54c166.51$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.5920258.9%119 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad0b…99febacked HAVU16c160.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512162.8%76 W · 45 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed Rebels Gaming51c154$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.466741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Rebels Gaming31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Rebels Gaming64c150$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked HAVU43c143.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.273,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed HAVU13c136.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.831,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Rebels Gaming76c131.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.561,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6061…5090backed HAVU45c130.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.622330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e07…93f1backed Rebels Gaming58c128.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Rebels Gaming56c126.58$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.731845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341c…f86fbacked Rebels Gaming51c115.86$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.773354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Rebels Gaming59c110.17$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1742757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x467e…4a19backed Rebels Gaming42c109.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.524452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed HAVU50c108.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4412538.4%48 W · 77 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa97d…e699backed HAVU25c108.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.943537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f18…1566backed Rebels Gaming50c108$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.082070%14 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+54.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6766…0db2backed HAVU47c105.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Rebels Gaming49c102.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8240449.8%201 W · 203 L+1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Rebels Gaming58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.63063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Rebels Gaming59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4137050.5%187 W · 183 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8248…c0b2backed Rebels Gaming51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4920750.7%105 W · 102 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1965…2c2dbacked HAVU20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fad…6b49backed HAVU50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x275d…6b0cbacked HAVU68c99.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.