Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe19327d69c9cc487149265a7bd61b5ee7bc7fc4bd92fe78fc59354ff1f5710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,020$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.53 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 478.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 370$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 360.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.17 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 349.8$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 284.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.93 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 264.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 242.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 187.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 185.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 42c | 179.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 49c | 176.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 49c | 174.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 168.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 15c | 139.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.24 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 138.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 112.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 112.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 32c | 109.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 30c | 108.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 43c | 103.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 39c | 100.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 98.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 48c | 96.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 89.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 82.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 78.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 78.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 16c | 67.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 66.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 65.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 62.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 60.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 47c | 58.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 35c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 47c | 52.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…bf05backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 27c | 47.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 38c | 41.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 51c | 39.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 62c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 39.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 38.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 36.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 36.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 64c | 35.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 34.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 54c | 32.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 43c | 29.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…01e1backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 54c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 18.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 16.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.