TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,070 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes39c3,156$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.9831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No59c1,238$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…b31ebacked No79c593.26$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9716295.7%155 W · 7 L+61.2wins+0.38per pick58cpaid+97.3%equal weight86+0.33 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No41c545.78$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1745162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c514.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.588,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c370$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes76c368.07$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2782972.4%21 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c349.8$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.565,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No58c284.56$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No66c272$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.064,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c252$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.818,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes39c238.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2913838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c236.74$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c223.92$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.921,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No66c219$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.463,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c213.8$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No42c173.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.894,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c166.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.561,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No56c150.13$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.061,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No45c148.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c140$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes58c119.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.054,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes41c118.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.438749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No42c106.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.921,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes41c106.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.261,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes32c101.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0135325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.530442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No66c95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.35538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No68c90.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.221,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No66c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.69053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No67c83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.552,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1a…99eabacked Yes67c74.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.992737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes55c74.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No63c65.59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c60.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.831,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.835,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No41c52.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3915529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c52.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6319753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No42c51.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8933654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c50.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.923,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc47…15d4backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf07f…8a62backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x166c…bf05backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9844465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.55444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No56c48.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5323549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No77c44.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No42c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.311,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c43.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.186,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes35c42.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0118038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf85…f199backed Yes29c41.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes65c41.72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.125024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes37c41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.844366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No74c39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1419648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No78c37.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2425766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes55c36.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No49c36.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.69536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6871…7cb8backed Yes65c34.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.737953.2%42 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No76c32.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8926458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c32.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed No55c30.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5910360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c30.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No48c28.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes55c27.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No66c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.182,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes66c26.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.311,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x816d…47d0backed Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.12,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c23.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.983,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes72c23.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5710246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No71c22.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4343848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…7219backed No79c21.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.477876.9%60 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8347175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No71c17.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0194552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes67c16.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.331,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed No71c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6414953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No65c15.97$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5988973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec4…cb91backed No75c15.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.877170.4%50 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No75c15.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8643559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3594066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.