TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof Top Esports, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$692,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,223 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed JD Gaming51c90,394$45,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,602.361,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Top Esports49c46,871$23,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,101.1514056.4%79 W · 61 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe8…5f44backed Top Esports1c45,341$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.66535.7%3 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Top Esports15c39,305$5,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,895.7323447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed JD Gaming51c34,839$17,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,071.2451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed JD Gaming52c25,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00064155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked JD Gaming51c21,444$10,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,508.4620348.8%99 W · 104 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Top Esports50c20,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9001,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c8…cf96backed Top Esports1c19,269$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.657341.1%30 W · 43 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed JD Gaming52c16,152$8,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,702.3159450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Top Esports48c14,923$7,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,162.8455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed JD Gaming51c14,487$7,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,104.914146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Top Esports2c13,097$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8144120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Top Esports48c11,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2801,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8f…de20backed JD Gaming52c10,500$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,06012652.4%66 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed JD Gaming51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90091854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Top Esports49c9,722$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,75013333.8%45 W · 88 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed JD Gaming52c7,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3601,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Top Esports48c6,773$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.961,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Top Esports49c6,700$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,28370456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Top Esports48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00026549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked JD Gaming52c6,200$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9762,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed JD Gaming48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12082352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Top Esports49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba90…b283backed Top Esports11c5,801$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.116925.4%43 W · 126 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Top Esports26c5,051$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,298.831,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5a…63f9backed Top Esports47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,349.993935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Top Esports3c4,914$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.219938.4%38 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed JD Gaming51c4,900$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.9931036.1%112 W · 198 L-18.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Top Esports48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00096057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Top Esports49c4,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00076639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Top Esports49c4,062$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.4554756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed JD Gaming53c3,889$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.6911140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Top Esports36c3,529$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.6597427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Top Esports50c3,523$1,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.5690348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Top Esports49c3,333$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.1751044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Top Esports3c3,200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed Top Esports30c3,195$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.9831644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed JD Gaming52c3,100$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.9843539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf97a…d5c5backed Top Esports8c3,100$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2393941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Top Esports47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Top Esports3c2,955$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Top Esports50c2,805$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.1825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6dd…edafbacked Top Esports44c2,729$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.6913165.6%86 W · 45 L+16.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fd6…1582backed Top Esports21c2,600$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.63959%23 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Top Esports49c2,524$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.761,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed JD Gaming52c2,262$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.768746%40 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Top Esports52c2,253$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.5833456%187 W · 147 L-15.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked JD Gaming50c2,250$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.551160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Top Esports48c2,242$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.092387%20 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+37.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed JD Gaming50c2,200$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10046257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Top Esports49c2,072$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.131,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Top Esports26c2,043$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.4314930.9%46 W · 103 L-11.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Top Esports48c2,001$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.962,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed JD Gaming52c2,000$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.4533845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed JD Gaming50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00055639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Top Esports49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98017749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed Top Esports2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed JD Gaming51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.991,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Top Esports51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.981,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked JD Gaming52c1,928$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.3295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Top Esports53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Top Esports51c1,777$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.251,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Top Esports48c1,700$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.9750242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddad…bce1backed Top Esports49c1,669$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.0332954.4%179 W · 150 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Top Esports2c1,600$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3266116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Top Esports11c1,569$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5725143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed JD Gaming66c1,513$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.3329846.6%139 W · 159 L-19.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4854…8d34backed Top Esports49c1,411$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc733…4f14backed Top Esports50c1,405$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006453.1%34 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Top Esports4c1,400$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5894237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d0d…5960backed Top Esports15c1,400$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2066639.4%26 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed JD Gaming52c1,345$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.7186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c6…ff7dbacked Top Esports2c1,300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.223023%53 W · 177 L-19.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Top Esports49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed JD Gaming50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60021954.3%119 W · 100 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Top Esports49c1,160$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.993,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c2abacked JD Gaming65c1,156$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.829268.5%63 W · 29 L+13.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed JD Gaming52c1,115$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.3842847.9%205 W · 223 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x663d…2dd4backed Top Esports15c1,106$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.6817155%94 W · 77 L+16.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed JD Gaming50c1,084$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.088045%36 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b7…5d2cbacked JD Gaming70c1,050$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.357973.4%58 W · 21 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb845…ca23backed Top Esports19c1,025$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.697628.9%22 W · 54 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Top Esports50c1,020$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8116942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36a0…436dbacked Top Esports14c1,002$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3647738.6%184 W · 293 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed JD Gaming52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4803,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed JD Gaming50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Top Esports39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3902,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Top Esports49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49028350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Top Esports1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52323.9%9 W · 223 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf95b…0c6fbacked Top Esports48c978.44$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.6516038.8%62 W · 98 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0cc…ce77backed JD Gaming52c978.44$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.6510239.2%40 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Top Esports50c971.57$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.791,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb063…fa55backed Top Esports52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed JD Gaming79c926.4$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5215356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Top Esports50c923.38$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.6924445.1%110 W · 134 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Top Esports49c874.49$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.521948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Top Esports49c820.44$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.128240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x568b…5573backed JD Gaming52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3843925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a0f…732abacked Top Esports34c760.2$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25513441.8%56 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.