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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sinnersof Sinners, Bushido Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Bushido Wildcats30c16,888$5,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,070.55,19455.2%2,869 W · 2,325 L+131.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Sinners70c13,000$9,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.8822752.9%120 W · 107 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…50f0backed Bushido Wildcats29c12,051$3,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.22623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Sinners70c11,250$7,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,417.3371251.7%368 W · 344 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Sinners61c9,189$5,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,622.717236.1%26 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Sinners71c8,209$5,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.7186758.1%504 W · 363 L+59.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2525…3dddbacked Bushido Wildcats40c7,153$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.81631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Sinners71c4,800$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3925446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Bushido Wildcats38c3,891$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.1740346.7%188 W · 215 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Bushido Wildcats31c3,448$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.9663156.4%356 W · 275 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinners65c2,850$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.021,62929.8%485 W · 1,144 L-90.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Bushido Wildcats30c2,109$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.462,69752.1%1,405 W · 1,292 L+30.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…872ebacked Bushido Wildcats30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011471.1%81 W · 33 L+18.2wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+27.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Bushido Wildcats15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.994311.6%5 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Sinners61c1,900$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74148746.6%227 W · 260 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Bushido Wildcats29c1,731$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…f2d0backed Bushido Wildcats44c1,593$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.426063.3%38 W · 22 L+7.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bushido Wildcats30c1,502$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.262,07154%1,119 W · 952 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Bushido Wildcats40c1,480$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.971,81959%1,074 W · 745 L+105.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Bushido Wildcats29c1,479$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.912321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid+9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Sinners70c1,407$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.991,71053.2%909 W · 801 L+65.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Bushido Wildcats30c1,300$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.2650055.2%276 W · 224 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Sinners76c1,214$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.538552.9%45 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadeb…5850backed Bushido Wildcats61c1,183$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.65954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Sinners53c1,106$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.5451756.3%291 W · 226 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Bushido Wildcats29c1,087$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2838841.8%162 W · 226 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sinners62c1,036$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.871,50239.1%587 W · 915 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Bushido Wildcats29c1,035$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.595648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Sinners48c999.81$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.2133737.7%127 W · 210 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63d…75a1backed Bushido Wildcats38c799.99$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Sinners73c752.33$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3326975.5%203 W · 66 L+25.9wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Bushido Wildcats16c718.53$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8646057.2%263 W · 197 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a0…f447backed Bushido Wildcats29c700$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x189f…f4f3backed Bushido Wildcats28c700$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sinners78c613.02$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.593,70629.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L-297.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3456…57ecbacked Sinners69c612.21$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.791266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Bushido Wildcats28c607.5$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.111938.7%46 W · 73 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Sinners67c587.21$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.658,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Sinners72c583.22$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.366554.1%360 W · 305 L+24.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sinners68c569$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.484342.2%356 W · 487 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Sinners70c510.56$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1763454.6%346 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Sinners65c507$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.452,56143.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Bushido Wildcats36c500$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17860541%248 W · 357 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Sinners80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10080534%274 W · 531 L-51.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Bushido Wildcats10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Bushido Wildcats9c459.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.382,73230.3%829 W · 1,903 L-120.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sinners64c451.99$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.755,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Bushido Wildcats29c451$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.799541.1%39 W · 56 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Sinners48c418.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9550651.2%259 W · 247 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Bushido Wildcats29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11646344.3%205 W · 258 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Bushido Wildcats25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10062838.2%240 W · 388 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5440…f13bbacked Bushido Wildcats38c393.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013948.9%68 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Sinners71c392.8$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9324954.2%135 W · 114 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x02cf…813cbacked Sinners71c385$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.65944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bushido Wildcats28c384.2$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5814545.5%66 W · 79 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d78…b8b9backed Bushido Wildcats40c362.5$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14517349.1%85 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Bushido Wildcats44c361.49$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.552,50044.6%1,115 W · 1,385 L-67.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b03…d5cdbacked Bushido Wildcats29c344.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.991145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Sinners72c336.5$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.228253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Sinners72c320$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.651556.5%291 W · 224 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Bushido Wildcats42c313.1$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9581045.9%372 W · 438 L-24.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…6731backed Sinners73c308.82$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.821275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x060c…5de9backed Sinners69c307.93$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked Sinners72c305.56$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.563661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Bushido Wildcats78c300$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23426361.6%162 W · 101 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bushido Wildcats29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8715949.7%79 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Bushido Wildcats31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931,05149%515 W · 536 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Sinners70c300$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8938440.9%157 W · 227 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Bushido Wildcats31c289.64$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8913567.4%91 W · 44 L+19.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Bushido Wildcats28c277.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8476254.9%418 W · 344 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa514…9c8fbacked Bushido Wildcats52c263.65$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.18357.8%48 W · 35 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8118…783cbacked Sinners64c260$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Sinners58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.283,37545.7%1,542 W · 1,833 L-84.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Sinners61c246$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9476553.3%408 W · 357 L+26.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90e0…6307backed Sinners64c241.44$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.993762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc84f…bb5bbacked Bushido Wildcats54c240.74$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Sinners66c226.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.948161.7%50 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sinners58c213.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.461,14354.9%628 W · 515 L+42.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Sinners72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3342555.3%235 W · 190 L+17.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked Bushido Wildcats29c206.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Sinners61c205.9$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.72,74947.6%1,309 W · 1,440 L-37.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Sinners68c202.94$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9418250%91 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Bushido Wildcats28c199.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9910158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Sinners67c197.52$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1827442.7%117 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Sinners65c195.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.713271.9%23 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5217…c89abacked Sinners72c191.66$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.663759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sinners70c190.5$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.355,70747.2%2,694 W · 3,013 L+45.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Sinners72c180$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.414355.9%80 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Sinners68c175$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7510642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Bushido Wildcats29c170$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.33554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f3…5402backed Bushido Wildcats61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004250%21 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed Bushido Wildcats29c163.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4611237.5%42 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Sinners69c162.32$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3236449.5%180 W · 184 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Sinners61c161$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7921647.2%102 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bushido Wildcats37c154.08$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.482,44545.4%1,109 W · 1,336 L-66.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Bushido Wildcats34c152.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6931247.8%149 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Sinners71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.512059.2%71 W · 49 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Sinners79c143.28$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.342,63434.6%912 W · 1,722 L-204.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Sinners66c136.69$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.424,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed Bushido Wildcats30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4087055.9%486 W · 384 L+32.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.