Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1a628f1b7593c93e5d2f9bb0ed13bafe8a3c9df6f3f0d3271c7751fd1ae9fd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d2c…dd89backed Yes | 1c | 7,661$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 5c | 1,163$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 43c | 555.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 428.62$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 53c | 307.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 279.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…49f2backed Yes | 68c | 209.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…1109backed Yes | 45c | 200.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eaa…a6d1backed Yes | 44c | 175.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 153.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…6d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 151.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 58c | 146.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 45c | 133.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 130.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 51c | 128.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 127.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 54c | 119.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 51c | 107.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 106.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 103.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 84.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…b9a1backed Yes | 51c | 78.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 56c | 76.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 73.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 43c | 69.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 50c | 65.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 64.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 63.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 60.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 60.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 44c | 59.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 45c | 57.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 56c | 53.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 44c | 52.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 46.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…f579backed Yes | 58c | 45.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 43.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 42.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 41.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…b3d0backed Yes | 46c | 40.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 46c | 37.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 57c | 36.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 34.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 35c | 34.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ae…372fbacked No | 55c | 33.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…b2b1backed No | 57c | 33.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 58c | 30.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 41c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf2…fa7bbacked Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed No | 38c | 27.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 57c | 24.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e9…416ebacked Yes | 48c | 24.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 53c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 58c | 19.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 80c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.