TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, BC.Game Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$248,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BC.Game Esports22c12,155$2,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,661.132,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BC.Game Esports23c9,764$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.583,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BC.Game Esports21c8,423$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.9159839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked BC.Game Esports15c7,145$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.6141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked BC.Game Esports11c5,381$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.0921655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb553…457bbacked BC.Game Esports20c5,018$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked BC.Game Esports10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9921424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed BC.Game Esports4c4,397$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.621338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Vitality79c4,370$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.991,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BC.Game Esports21c3,079$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.885,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed BC.Game Esports32c3,023$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98020946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BC.Game Esports13c2,895$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.951,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Vitality77c2,838$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.5817162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality73c2,549$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.5325555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked BC.Game Esports11c2,473$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27232542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vitality74c2,370$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.041,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked BC.Game Esports7c2,341$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.763138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked BC.Game Esports2c2,200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4569624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed66…90dfbacked BC.Game Esports5c2,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed BC.Game Esports5c2,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0326743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked BC.Game Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BC.Game Esports6c1,602$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2440140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked BC.Game Esports2c1,600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Vitality78c1,500$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.0917460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality73c1,400$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.9936837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BC.Game Esports21c1,360$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.722,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vitality80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed BC.Game Esports1c1,222$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.560838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc086…8128backed Vitality78c1,186$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.3814748.3%71 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked BC.Game Esports11c1,125$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.959040%36 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked BC.Game Esports25c1,061$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.027,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed BC.Game Esports9c1,037$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3588242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked BC.Game Esports2c1,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179216.3%15 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44dd…f476backed Vitality80c916.58$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.322951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked BC.Game Esports11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039847.7%190 W · 208 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed BC.Game Esports10c830$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8361034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BC.Game Esports20c781.59$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.014,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Vitality73c749.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed BC.Game Esports8c736.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8917045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BC.Game Esports15c681.01$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.045,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa162…479dbacked BC.Game Esports16c674.86$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.983145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BC.Game Esports20c657.89$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.86,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Vitality78c639.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4650050.6%253 W · 247 L+2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed BC.Game Esports17c568.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5612027.5%33 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Vitality73c547.95$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.957652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Vitality77c547.58$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6340253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked BC.Game Esports9c540.22$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210737.4%40 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed BC.Game Esports8c526.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4413540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed BC.Game Esports11c507.5$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7731642.1%133 W · 183 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed BC.Game Esports22c487.14$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4742845.6%195 W · 233 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…ba17backed BC.Game Esports8c420.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.471163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed BC.Game Esports14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Vitality75c390.92$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.261,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed BC.Game Esports4c375$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516720.4%34 W · 133 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf49a…8981backed BC.Game Esports13c372.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2919142.4%81 W · 110 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked BC.Game Esports15c362.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.961,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf52e…54fcbacked BC.Game Esports19c346.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.815532.7%18 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf57c…66febacked BC.Game Esports15c336.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50258%2 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.27per pick35cpaid-76.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed BC.Game Esports30c312.2$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.669254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed BC.Game Esports17c293.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015045.3%68 W · 82 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x829c…9469backed BC.Game Esports10c292.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked BC.Game Esports14c287.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7922838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked BC.Game Esports9c283.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519747.2%93 W · 104 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked BC.Game Esports5c283.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410532.4%34 W · 71 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Vitality80c250.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.159441.5%39 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed BC.Game Esports30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Vitality80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5017967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e57…831dbacked Vitality73c250$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.37943%34 W · 45 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked BC.Game Esports10c249.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Vitality80c249.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9838157.7%220 W · 161 L-1.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x734e…5ba1backed BC.Game Esports15c233.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35100%0 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x933f…df4bbacked BC.Game Esports11c232.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.866823.5%16 W · 52 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked BC.Game Esports9c225.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2855843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BC.Game Esports10c220$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2564552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked BC.Game Esports14c207.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed BC.Game Esports13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2644939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed Vitality72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564650%23 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed BC.Game Esports5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062538.6%241 W · 384 L-16.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed BC.Game Esports21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424847.9%23 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe8c…6c48backed BC.Game Esports10c199$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98641.9%36 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Vitality79c180$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.739258.2%228 W · 164 L+18.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6385…2afabacked BC.Game Esports13c179.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.441516.6%69 W · 346 L-36.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed BC.Game Esports17c175$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.616030%18 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4484…9defbacked BC.Game Esports27c163.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.269445.7%43 W · 51 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc8d…e6c8backed BC.Game Esports10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed BC.Game Esports27c139.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6519748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…a834backed Vitality73c135.37$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5531654.7%173 W · 143 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52c5…5878backed BC.Game Esports13c134.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7914346.2%66 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04c…55d3backed BC.Game Esports28c130.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.683638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb69f…25bdbacked BC.Game Esports10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313443.3%58 W · 76 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed BC.Game Esports24c129.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.494,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Vitality76c126.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.415053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed BC.Game Esports18c125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.611,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked BC.Game Esports18c125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Vitality80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2535466.1%234 W · 120 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed BC.Game Esports22c123.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9844748.1%215 W · 232 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed BC.Game Esports8c122$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1991…348ebacked BC.Game Esports18c120$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.519150.3%96 W · 95 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd0…4303backed BC.Game Esports16c114.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810739.3%42 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked BC.Game Esports15c113.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6448319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.