TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Movistar KOIof Natus Vincere, Movistar KOI
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Movistar KOI66c13,463$8,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,581.3792254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3b…6598backed Natus Vincere1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100336.1%2 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Movistar KOI69c8,750$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7302,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere31c5,034$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55559548.2%287 W · 308 L+15.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Natus Vincere1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Natus Vincere40c3,863$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.3467760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere29c3,400$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98610024%24 W · 76 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-46.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Natus Vincere36c3,226$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.4235054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere2c3,158$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8875942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Movistar KOI64c3,111$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.9352750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Natus Vincere36c2,830$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.71,14330.8%352 W · 791 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere33c2,374$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.721,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Movistar KOI57c1,773$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.12,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere33c1,742$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.182,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere22c1,712$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.073,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ec6…698bbacked Natus Vincere37c1,694$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.774047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Natus Vincere31c1,634$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere42c1,562$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.832,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Natus Vincere30c1,513$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Natus Vincere1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2097527.8%271 W · 704 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Natus Vincere28c1,349$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.61,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere36c1,280$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.678549.9%392 W · 393 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Movistar KOI72c1,216$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.441,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Natus Vincere5c1,184$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.151,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Movistar KOI71c1,143$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.4999756.6%564 W · 433 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Natus Vincere29c1,070$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.386136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Movistar KOI64c1,009$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.381,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Movistar KOI70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30084360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Movistar KOI69c927.1$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.411,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Movistar KOI58c901$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.266243.5%27 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Natus Vincere29c861.86$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7686943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Natus Vincere32c845.49$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.141,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere20c834.09$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6475342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Movistar KOI65c809.91$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.221,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Natus Vincere30c799.99$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24142852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Natus Vincere37c796.78$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.812030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Natus Vincere35c789.03$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9522455.4%124 W · 100 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere35c782$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.71,41243.8%618 W · 794 L-3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Natus Vincere28c729.31$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2188544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Movistar KOI65c700$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6448338.7%187 W · 296 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere17c595.88$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10123341.2%96 W · 137 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Movistar KOI64c576.56$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.5696057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere36c541.93$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.482,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Movistar KOI68c536.87$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.437548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere36c522.83$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.811,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Movistar KOI80c513.06$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0725074.8%187 W · 63 L+42.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+24.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Natus Vincere15c510.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2138154.3%207 W · 174 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Natus Vincere39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed Movistar KOI62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Natus Vincere30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Movistar KOI51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451,00948.2%486 W · 523 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Movistar KOI62c447.85$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.572,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere33c436.9$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.591,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Natus Vincere40c427.61$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1510959.6%65 W · 44 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Movistar KOI55c350$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Movistar KOI65c349.98$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Movistar KOI59c347.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8485852.3%449 W · 409 L+35.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50d4…263ebacked Natus Vincere37c331.46$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked Natus Vincere31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10083149.8%414 W · 417 L+2.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb2…7adfbacked Natus Vincere31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018836.7%69 W · 119 L-0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Movistar KOI60c307.99$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.5250647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Movistar KOI70c302.67$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.821754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Natus Vincere30c302.03$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6149947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Natus Vincere36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,45343.4%630 W · 823 L+106.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Movistar KOI46c265.53$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4446637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed Movistar KOI53c264.39$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.3916636.1%60 W · 106 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Natus Vincere36c261.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0869841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Natus Vincere30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7528240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Movistar KOI62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9579653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…7514backed Natus Vincere51c220.02$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.235633.7%120 W · 236 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Movistar KOI64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7238659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x493a…0bd2backed Natus Vincere30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605955.9%33 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere37c199.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Movistar KOI67c174.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd7…8553backed Movistar KOI59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.770757%403 W · 304 L+35.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Natus Vincere37c167.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4544451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x109b…935fbacked Movistar KOI45c165.07$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0728261%172 W · 110 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Movistar KOI41c156.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2343233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43dc…e505backed Natus Vincere61c156.11$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957060%42 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Natus Vincere35c154.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5374250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Natus Vincere43c150.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.257062.9%44 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Natus Vincere36c141.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9653543.4%232 W · 303 L+33.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere20c140.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.172,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca97…f3cebacked Natus Vincere31c138.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Natus Vincere33c137$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.211,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Natus Vincere35c133.85$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.851,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…2385backed Natus Vincere31c129.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3516142.9%69 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8496…27b6backed Natus Vincere30c114.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.468165.4%53 W · 28 L+9.3wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Movistar KOI58c102.2$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.213739.4%54 W · 83 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Natus Vincere59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5932650.3%164 W · 162 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbbb…5693backed Natus Vincere29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Natus Vincere30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,17547.4%557 W · 618 L+42.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed Movistar KOI71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2962851%320 W · 308 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked Natus Vincere26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2629942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cbe…7d36backed Natus Vincere34c94.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.072733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed Movistar KOI70c93.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0941468.4%283 W · 131 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Natus Vincere18c90.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1224435.7%87 W · 157 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe9…4a83backed Natus Vincere31c90.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Movistar KOI62c87.45$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4561849.8%308 W · 310 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Natus Vincere36c87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6513155%72 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.