Middle East · resolved market
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb37f9e7e9a6a514f1ecfc184d8858ee653861f35e299231a53fc67949585097e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 0c | 46,254$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 4,203$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 12c | 4,081$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,899$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…5862backed Yes | 8c | 3,797$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,499$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 10c | 3,015$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…d4b1backed Yes | 11c | 2,709$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…d278backed Yes | 7c | 2,672$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…07edbacked Yes | 9c | 2,069$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +242.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 8c | 2,048$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,906$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,646$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 5c | 1,637$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 1,587$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 1,553$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…f464backed Yes | 17c | 1,541$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…e717backed Yes | 7c | 1,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,301$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…b574backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…a321backed Yes | 7c | 1,277$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 1,221$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…d5cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,207$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,182$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…ee71backed Yes | 8c | 1,090$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 997.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 3c | 821.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 7c | 810.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 804.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 6c | 775.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 7c | 755.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 8c | 749.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 2c | 723.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 7c | 705.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 9c | 640.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 620.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…0a5cbacked Yes | 10c | 504.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…2f43backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa220…4c66backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 462.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 8c | 458.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 4c | 396.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes | 8c | 375.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 344.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5568backed Yes | 7c | 338.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…9915backed Yes | 5c | 326.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…1b7abacked Yes | 6c | 324.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…6e7abacked Yes | 7c | 320.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 6c | 318.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e78…cdbebacked Yes | 3c | 310.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…4a3ebacked Yes | 5c | 310.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…6bd3backed Yes | 8c | 289.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…c20fbacked Yes | 7c | 277.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 276.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 5c | 270.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 8c | 269.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes | 10c | 262.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…60c3backed Yes | 8c | 251.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089a…8486backed Yes | 7c | 239.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 238.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…5c3cbacked Yes | 7c | 222.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed Yes | 6c | 213.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa668…ddd9backed Yes | 5c | 209.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1aa2backed Yes | 7c | 206.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 10c | 204.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…8e56backed Yes | 5c | 201.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…8e32backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…293bbacked Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 8c | 196.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…ab8dbacked Yes | 8c | 171.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacf…c2a8backed Yes | 10c | 152.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…4ffebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…9198backed Yes | 10c | 100.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +292.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.