TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Northwestern vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nebraska Cornhuskersof Northwestern, Nebraska Cornhuskers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$475,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c294,073$213,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,134.5512549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Northwestern24c66,699$15,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,769.4730949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Northwestern28c46,761$13,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,092.4581847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Northwestern27c40,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,8007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Northwestern22c28,351$6,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,205.5168440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Northwestern27c27,240$7,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,362.8685947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Northwestern27c25,600$6,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,91275651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Northwestern7c24,963$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.6164841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Northwestern27c24,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4806832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Northwestern27c22,000$5,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,94015745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nebraska Cornhuskers78c19,939$15,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,484.186243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Northwestern27c18,507$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0675141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Northwestern27c16,022$4,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30593548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Northwestern27c11,100$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,99752641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Northwestern12c8,882$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.7516635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Northwestern28c8,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,24038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Nebraska Cornhuskers76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20026750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern27c4,687$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.412,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers80c4,197$3,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.3240541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Northwestern8c4,045$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3563243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Nebraska Cornhuskers77c3,692$2,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.77664.5%49 W · 27 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Northwestern27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81026147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Northwestern21c2,574$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.4911844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers72c2,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70017655.1%97 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Northwestern28c2,250$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.4134529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Northwestern28c2,143$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Northwestern27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.992245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Nebraska Cornhuskers77c1,781$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.3210555.2%58 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Northwestern29c1,715$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northwestern27c1,500$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6c31backed Northwestern28c1,467$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2245…0534backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c1,467$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…b7febacked Nebraska Cornhuskers73c1,448$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1646…e835backed Northwestern28c1,447$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Northwestern27c1,446$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5115451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Northwestern28c1,400$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39217946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers71c1,296$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.9249443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Northwestern27c1,200$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32447131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Nebraska Cornhuskers72c1,087$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4211653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Northwestern9c980$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.936543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers72c859.94$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.8549253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers79c811.75$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7155350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf4…8723backed Northwestern19c788.69$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…c28cbacked Northwestern28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…34a6backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c714$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Northwestern3c704.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.09694.3%3 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers71c679.15$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.9550358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Northwestern11c668$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5957144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Northwestern19c650$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.510246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb05e…4fcebacked Nebraska Cornhuskers79c523.72$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Northwestern20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003423.5%8 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+40.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Nebraska Cornhuskers72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Northwestern27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13511436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Northwestern28c484$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5220757.5%119 W · 88 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Northwestern5c358.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf5…6638backed Northwestern31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Northwestern28c321.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Northwestern27c319$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.131,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Nebraska Cornhuskers71c317$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.938549.4%42 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Northwestern27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.517634.7%61 W · 115 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e43…5238backed Northwestern28c285.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e94…9aabbacked Northwestern28c285.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Northwestern18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406630.3%20 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Northwestern28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5615734.4%54 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Northwestern38c197.37$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4095…2ca2backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c178.08$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f0…e82fbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers73c164.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec75…2e8fbacked Northwestern23c163.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.898447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Northwestern28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Northwestern27c149.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3318416.8%31 W · 153 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Nebraska Cornhuskers75c147$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.75683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4de…cb5cbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers70c143.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.612060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Northwestern29c138.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014836.5%54 W · 94 L-11.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.996358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9334…32dabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9918868.1%128 W · 60 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick69cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c0…be99backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c136.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.736558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Northwestern27c134$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1821629.2%63 W · 153 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Northwestern29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306232.3%20 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272568%17 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b0e…0092backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.89366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Northwestern28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517450%87 W · 87 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb0…e845backed Nebraska Cornhuskers62c76.38$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.89771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nebraska Cornhuskers80c73.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.962843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d89…3e65backed Northwestern28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205133.3%17 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58bc…a883backed Northwestern28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205036%18 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…677ebacked Northwestern28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203135.5%11 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Northwestern28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016044.4%71 W · 89 L-15.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Northwestern28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd6…6202backed Nebraska Cornhuskers73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.49955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…c664backed Northwestern32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d8…622fbacked Northwestern23c55.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Northwestern26c52.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7412718.9%24 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95a…87f6backed Northwestern29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Northwestern29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.513432.8%44 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Northwestern27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.524157.3%138 W · 103 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b47…5286backed Northwestern27c49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2310049%49 W · 51 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Northwestern24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.655856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c3…f46ebacked Northwestern28c42.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Northwestern28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27441.9%31 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Northwestern25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.