MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d02bd288f0f6791abf393217aaba38ca44ce29661d9148ebc935c9d71efc2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 4,042$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,921$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.52 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,588$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.05 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,556$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 1,111$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 1,043$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 840.8$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 455.9$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 455$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.85 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 297$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.29 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 274.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 194.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 191.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 155.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 154$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 149.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 145.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 145.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 62.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 56.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 54.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 52.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 42.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 39.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 38.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 34.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 25.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 24.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 22.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 21.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.