Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d87335d7f2f78ec7f3e038cc01e6de2e269661ecec950f0cfb26bc1879509d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 78c | 9,062$7,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,067.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 63c | 7,930$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 36c | 3,203$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.98 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 2,932$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.88 | 2,123 | 35.5%754 W · 1,369 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…1417backed Under | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 22c | 1,993$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.43 | 2,167 | 47.9%1,038 W · 1,129 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 1,776$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.95 | 942 | 44.6%420 W · 522 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 46c | 1,279$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.53 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 59c | 1,183$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.07 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 1,117$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.47 | 2,729 | 35.8%978 W · 1,751 L | -13.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 859.15$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.79 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 33c | 751.21$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.39 | 2,103 | 36.6%770 W · 1,333 L | -27.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 11c | 743.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 49c | 715$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 48c | 715$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.8 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +9.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 29c | 635.59$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.27 | 1,288 | 39.4%507 W · 781 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 11c | 450$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 742 | 33.6%249 W · 493 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 50c | 440.32$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 17c | 370.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 66c | 353.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 25c | 311.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 483 | 43.9%212 W · 271 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 877 | 60.5%531 W · 346 L | +92.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 49c | 243.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 143 | 61.5%88 W · 55 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 22c | 210.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,507 | 48.1%725 W · 782 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 55c | 184.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 30c | 177.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 140 | 32.1%45 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 39c | 153.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 49c | 146.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 311 | 63.3%197 W · 114 L | +46.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 67c | 142.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 70c | 126$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 230 | 47.8%110 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Under | 38c | 121.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 44c | 104.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 101.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 655 | 50.1%328 W · 327 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 35c | 94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 91.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 91.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 46c | 88.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Over | 46c | 87.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +238.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Over | 61c | 79.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 35c | 52.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 52c | 51.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 38c | 51.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 56c | 50.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 73c | 39.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 252 | 47.2%119 W · 133 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Over | 49c | 36.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Over | 50c | 33.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +522.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 49c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 69c | 29.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 907 | 57.9%525 W · 382 L | +55.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 53c | 26.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 70c | 23.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 259 | 45.9%119 W · 140 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 64c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 227 | 53.7%122 W · 105 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 345 | 51%176 W · 169 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…358bbacked Over | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 64c | 16.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: FC Groningen 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: FC Groningen O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-1.5)FC Groningen won
- Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-2.5)FC Groningen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.