Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f7f0afddbad280a288f022b38e70d3eb612b73cd66541e39597c39383e768ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Over | 43c | 55,232$23,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,534.04 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 10,609$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.2 | 2,103 | 36.6%770 W · 1,333 L | -27.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 9,151$4,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.05 | 2,123 | 35.5%754 W · 1,369 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 41c | 7,957$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.75 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 56c | 7,744$4,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,305.96 | 483 | 43.9%212 W · 271 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 57c | 7,087$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,039.59 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…7fc8backed Under | 57c | 4,884$2,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 57c | 3,750$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 801 | 50.1%401 W · 400 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 3,677$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +9.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +216.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 3,498$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.99 | 2,167 | 47.9%1,038 W · 1,129 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 57c | 2,855$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.8 | 882 | 50.1%442 W · 440 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Over | 42c | 2,724$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.12 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 57c | 2,616$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.74 | 671 | 47.8%321 W · 350 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 58c | 2,320$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 44c | 1,753$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.89 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 66c | 1,612$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.48 | 5,677 | 42%2,382 W · 3,295 L | +74.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 1,515$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.78 | 2,729 | 35.8%978 W · 1,751 L | -13.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 57c | 1,446$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.23 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +42%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 21c | 1,330$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.43 | 140 | 32.1%45 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 136 | 65.4%89 W · 47 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,144 | 50.7%580 W · 564 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 46c | 771.85$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Under | 20c | 632$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 57c | 461$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.77 | 337 | 36.2%122 W · 215 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 44c | 373$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.88 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 43c | 369$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 75c | 368$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 143 | 61.5%88 W · 55 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 58c | 354.35$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 43c | 272.44$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 57c | 240.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 1,507 | 48.1%725 W · 782 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…36c0backed Under | 9c | 198.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 74c | 188$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 60c | 181.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 1,288 | 39.4%507 W · 781 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 58c | 96.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1,480 | 37.8%560 W · 920 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 74c | 90.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 942 | 44.6%420 W · 522 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 80c | 83.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 45c | 74.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 76c | 67.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Under | 56c | 65.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 58c | 61.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 58c | 55.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…e9acbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 57c | 48.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 421 | 52.3%220 W · 201 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Under | 56c | 44.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 231 | 51.9%120 W · 111 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 38.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 2,607 | 52.1%1,358 W · 1,249 L | +9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 43c | 29.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Under | 45c | 28.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Under | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked Under | 59c | 22.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7a…ad52backed Under | 56c | 22.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Under | 58c | 20.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: FC Groningen 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: FC Groningen O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Groningen vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-2.5)Fortuna Sittard won
- Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-1.5)FC Groningen won
- Spread: Fortuna Sittard (-2.5)FC Groningen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.