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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alabama A&M Bulldogsof Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions, Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,916 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x691a…d113backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c4,071$2,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.1837441.7%156 W · 218 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions7c3,012$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.162,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c2,360$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.91,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…5b95backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions11c2,273$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs64c1,566$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.997448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs62c1,434$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.022,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs66c1,252$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.0437947.8%181 W · 198 L-26.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c1,111$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0725946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c760$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2143450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c699.61$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c640$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.237142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c572.31$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.751,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c505$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8582048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs65c501.31$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2768254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c475.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.126549.2%32 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c460.53$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17525049.2%123 W · 127 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c436.87$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8199045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f95…6972backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions43c430.77$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.131844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions36c404.67$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.688855.7%49 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs69c293.79$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.353,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da2…ed3abacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs65c286.83$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.832962.1%18 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c284$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5674649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c283.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10550745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions9c282.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0225337.5%95 W · 158 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a97…6313backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions18c274.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions36c270.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3130649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.913743.8%60 W · 77 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99338.7%36 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c253.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9992246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c250$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs64c243$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.391,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions28c238$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6714643.2%63 W · 83 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions26c234$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.721,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs74c213.93$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.752,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions36c210$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.58254.9%45 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions8c188.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.668234.1%28 W · 54 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c174.17$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.181,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions35c160$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+135.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf72…b4a6backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c159.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.149470.2%66 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7393447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs66c151.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.969639.6%38 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eff…ae12backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c138.89$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3942339.2%166 W · 257 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs79c135.57$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions39c133.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.712,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs69c125.32$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.123,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs68c116.8$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.945,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions27c108.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8643053.3%229 W · 201 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions42c105.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443464.7%22 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…c8ebbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.310652.8%56 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5423948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c81.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.311,44643.4%627 W · 819 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3710736.4%39 W · 68 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3739050.5%197 W · 193 L-34.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c78.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6721955.3%121 W · 98 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs76c73.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8171655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf926…fb21backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c70$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.98333.7%28 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions36c69.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs68c65$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6799848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions16c63.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4287047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions36c56.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9918230.8%56 W · 126 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions41c52.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.524,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions32c52.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.791,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c52.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0423363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3101…e57fbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52040%8 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…743dbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs64c49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8114451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3f…1966backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8625152.6%132 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions38c45.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4116140.4%65 W · 96 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c41.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.414,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.264658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.84143.9%18 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions35c36.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.824340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7f…8c81backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…afbcbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs62c33.15$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5370349.6%349 W · 354 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs64c31.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.483966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions34c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5437835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions37c30.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.218359%49 W · 34 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+31.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs47c25.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5313565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8557…4e7abacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs68c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.033961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1281453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs67c22.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5620248%97 W · 105 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c20.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5242751.8%221 W · 206 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x584d…d358backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs66c19.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.789264.1%59 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Alabama A&M Bulldogs63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8693247.3%441 W · 491 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Alabama A&M Bulldogs75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7510095%95 W · 5 L+21.3wins+0.21per pick74cpaid+29.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.