UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d7575a2a44b40e1ff5f815da8a683565e04fadc5ee7c87e49e18571bac0491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 37c | 8,509$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.41 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 62c | 6,528$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480.5 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Over | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Under | 63c | 2,375$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.41 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2652backed Over | 39c | 1,400$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Over | 38c | 1,250$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.92 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 61c | 999.99$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 37c | 965.3$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 63c | 942.86$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.86 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 63c | 820.96$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.45 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 62c | 775.95$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Under | 63c | 750$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 38c | 685.62$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.54 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 550.61$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.74 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 63c | 505.21$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8122…d3d5backed Over | 38c | 453.66$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under | 61c | 335.55$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…da99backed Over | 38c | 292.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Over | 38c | 261.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Over | 38c | 260.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Under | 64c | 253.61$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 38c | 170.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Over | 38c | 163.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…5e23backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Over | 38c | 157$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…d77fbacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 63c | 131.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…3046backed Under | 63c | 99.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…abbfbacked Over | 38c | 97.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Over | 38c | 90.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 38c | 79.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 37c | 79.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 63c | 73.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…2b21backed Over | 38c | 70.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…0a9cbacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…1e26backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…ed90backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…a2bfbacked Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 63c | 45.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fe…4920backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Under | 62c | 26.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)Uroš Medic won
- Will Daniel Rodriguez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Uroš Medic win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.