TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof L1ga Team, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$350,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc75a…1ab2backed L1ga Team0c30,088$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team25c22,260$5,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,541.781,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Nigma Galaxy77c16,140$12,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,735.7696357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Nigma Galaxy76c11,251$8,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660.1130667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy71c10,481$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.931,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed L1ga Team28c10,016$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.747146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked L1ga Team25c9,764$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.5789341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Nigma Galaxy76c6,457$4,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.8828159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team18c5,693$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.1371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked L1ga Team24c5,000$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.4524246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked L1ga Team23c5,000$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.6841944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked Nigma Galaxy74c4,728$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.443652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Nigma Galaxy73c4,648$3,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.851,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team23c4,300$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.8881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Nigma Galaxy74c4,215$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.0328251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked L1ga Team23c3,960$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.89643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed L1ga Team26c3,910$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00043344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy72c3,716$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.361,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe9…5f53backed L1ga Team16c3,660$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.61369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team23c3,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team25c2,502$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.081,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed L1ga Team16c2,445$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.5126540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team25c2,304$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.352,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team1c2,200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Nigma Galaxy77c2,197$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.521158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e24…7014backed Nigma Galaxy70c2,140$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.2310453.8%56 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed L1ga Team27c2,042$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5789…6407backed L1ga Team30c2,033$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004223.8%10 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed L1ga Team23c2,004$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked L1ga Team17c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35011142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed L1ga Team21c1,989$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.745347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy70c1,978$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.341,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4620…ea85backed L1ga Team25c1,926$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.43935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed L1ga Team26c1,872$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.0956949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nigma Galaxy76c1,750$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42579159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked L1ga Team23c1,750$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1994442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked L1ga Team20c1,637$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3264245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked L1ga Team19c1,610$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31222340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed L1ga Team14c1,562$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9826351%134 W · 129 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed L1ga Team19c1,516$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8330336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked L1ga Team19c1,505$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28015050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked L1ga Team31c1,502$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.7516541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked L1ga Team13c1,494$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.361,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Nigma Galaxy74c1,405$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.8923561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed L1ga Team29c1,322$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.361,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed L1ga Team25c1,300$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked L1ga Team30c1,285$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.622050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked L1ga Team23c1,235$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.811535.7%41 W · 74 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Nigma Galaxy77c1,200$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.2925752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed L1ga Team19c1,199$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.993043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed L1ga Team18c1,187$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6334442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked L1ga Team28c1,167$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2531936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed L1ga Team28c1,142$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked L1ga Team15c1,120$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16841042.4%174 W · 236 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…5f4fbacked L1ga Team31c1,070$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy76c1,060$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed L1ga Team17c1,050$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1806440.6%26 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nigma Galaxy74c1,015$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.5645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Nigma Galaxy79c1,012$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1785851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team20c1,011$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.421,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked L1ga Team25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed L1ga Team26c999.95$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9929952.2%156 W · 143 L+19.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed Nigma Galaxy78c988$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.362040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked L1ga Team32c942.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x331a…ff18backed L1ga Team31c942.04$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.011526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2785…ce75backed L1ga Team29c906$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.748934.8%31 W · 58 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed L1ga Team28c900.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Nigma Galaxy75c887.25$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.3150749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Nigma Galaxy75c833.19$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.8865647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked L1ga Team16c830.68$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.647361.6%45 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy77c817.75$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.481,69141.4%700 W · 991 L-40.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked L1ga Team29c795$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.555745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe47d…7967backed Nigma Galaxy78c765.54$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.422040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked L1ga Team16c750$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8f…4a0bbacked L1ga Team22c750$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.55444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy74c689.68$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.931,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed L1ga Team29c687.19$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.292441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Nigma Galaxy75c664$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16647660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy76c659.28$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.451,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed L1ga Team28c650$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18228549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Nigma Galaxy69c646$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked L1ga Team16c630$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.656542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Nigma Galaxy80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12534667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed L1ga Team25c602.01$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507437.8%28 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed L1ga Team26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15634044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Nigma Galaxy75c592.2$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.058250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed L1ga Team17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed L1ga Team17c581.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10029352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x631a…a80fbacked L1ga Team20c525$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520542.9%88 W · 117 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked L1ga Team17c505$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.826744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Nigma Galaxy71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde41…58bdbacked L1ga Team29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf408…afe0backed Nigma Galaxy68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed L1ga Team19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9523736.7%87 W · 150 L-17.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team22c497.6$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.861,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed L1ga Team16c486.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8019238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Nigma Galaxy69c485.58$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.5819547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed Nigma Galaxy70c458.42$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.428965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.