TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof L1ga Team, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy71c28,071$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,071.481,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed L1ga Team8c20,000$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.7547646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team25c17,600$4,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,313.251,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Nigma Galaxy75c13,426$10,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,296.2328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy78c10,686$8,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.841,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked L1ga Team25c10,000$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.6641944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed L1ga Team27c9,995$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.8356955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy74c8,394$6,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.341,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nigma Galaxy75c8,208$6,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.371,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Nigma Galaxy75c7,434$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,892.441,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked L1ga Team30c5,741$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70024246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed L1ga Team27c5,518$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed L1ga Team28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40069644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked Nigma Galaxy77c4,572$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.883652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Nigma Galaxy73c4,526$3,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.842948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed L1ga Team26c4,380$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.7442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed L1ga Team27c3,998$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.3536248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked L1ga Team21c3,204$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.741,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed L1ga Team27c2,724$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8665647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked L1ga Team23c2,526$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.879643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked L1ga Team25c2,093$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.6631936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked L1ga Team23c2,007$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.2411142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed L1ga Team1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy74c2,000$1,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.41,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed L1ga Team29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed L1ga Team26c1,904$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0514557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed L1ga Team28c1,860$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.7817651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed L1ga Team25c1,594$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.530336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed L1ga Team27c1,454$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9935151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked L1ga Team26c1,316$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.0317946.9%84 W · 95 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nigma Galaxy73c1,299$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.2145750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed L1ga Team27c1,248$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.9660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Nigma Galaxy77c1,228$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.325752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy73c1,155$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.851,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked L1ga Team24c1,090$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.65745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed L1ga Team29c1,028$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29716058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team30c1,013$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8689440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed Nigma Galaxy76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015054.7%82 W · 68 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked L1ga Team25c1,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8769835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Nigma Galaxy72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed L1ga Team9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed L1ga Team10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed L1ga Team29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29018446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team28c999.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed L1ga Team30c968$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.43050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked L1ga Team26c963.79$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30da…a11dbacked L1ga Team32c943.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006031.7%19 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nigma Galaxy79c940.19$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.951,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Nigma Galaxy74c888$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.6950749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team25c881.83$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.521,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed L1ga Team3c826.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.83323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed L1ga Team28c819.64$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.57439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02af…f6c5backed L1ga Team6c801.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.454835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed L1ga Team27c750.81$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7821158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed L1ga Team28c750$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21018830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed L1ga Team28c749.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.991,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Nigma Galaxy68c742.82$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.75653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Nigma Galaxy70c719.68$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.919643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Nigma Galaxy74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18227060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Nigma Galaxy72c692.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5228252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked L1ga Team29c683.44$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4739550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Nigma Galaxy75c661.7$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4211154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed L1ga Team28c636$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed L1ga Team25c617.62$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4113635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x056e…cd80backed L1ga Team25c597$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1484151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked L1ga Team18c569.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.749644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed L1ga Team31c547.1$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4793546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team4c536.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.236132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked L1ga Team24c517.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254540%18 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed L1ga Team24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6c…618bbacked L1ga Team29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed L1ga Team16c500$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked L1ga Team26c500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13112452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Nigma Galaxy78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Nigma Galaxy72c492$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7325266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ea8…0491backed L1ga Team29c460$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.224041.3%99 W · 141 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked L1ga Team29c451.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.0817047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Nigma Galaxy80c444.7$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9419458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked L1ga Team27c444.44$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12025246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee45…200abacked Nigma Galaxy74c406.87$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3718046.1%83 W · 97 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed L1ga Team25c405.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007437.8%28 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Nigma Galaxy68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12829047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Nigma Galaxy76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7422663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked L1ga Team29c386.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9413148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked L1ga Team26c380.77$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96f…22a2backed L1ga Team29c361.27$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa949…7f5bbacked L1ga Team28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019849%97 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed L1ga Team28c355$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1641050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked L1ga Team30c350$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Nigma Galaxy68c350$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125961%36 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412d…18c5backed Nigma Galaxy75c347.77$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked L1ga Team25c333$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2556542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed L1ga Team28c301$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.287546.7%35 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked L1ga Team29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8711733.3%39 W · 78 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed L1ga Team32c299.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Nigma Galaxy74c299.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7888166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed L1ga Team22c293.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked L1ga Team29c291.81$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.626448.4%31 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Nigma Galaxy78c264.58$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.891060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed L1ga Team30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.