TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOSof FURIA Esports, LOS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$241,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,855 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports32c16,569$5,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.971,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0182…5d00backed LOS50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5003138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9024…a444backed FURIA Esports2c12,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200482.1%1 W · 47 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-74%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x890b…1979backed FURIA Esports50c8,300$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.113852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked LOS42c6,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.991,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FURIA Esports52c5,816$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.262,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked LOS48c5,743$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.4496048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed FURIA Esports10c4,220$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0919122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked LOS51c3,741$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.1228642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FURIA Esports30c3,472$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.591,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports42c3,055$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.372,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed FURIA Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed FURIA Esports70c2,970$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,067.6534658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed FURIA Esports51c2,960$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.696250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked LOS23c2,436$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.4333857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed FURIA Esports54c2,277$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,229.631,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked FURIA Esports50c2,214$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.7287844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed FURIA Esports51c1,978$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.151,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LOS56c1,900$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.0982953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed LOS40c1,830$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.464247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd43…0599backed FURIA Esports7c1,750$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.52236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed LOS27c1,750$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.3394237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked FURIA Esports64c1,731$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked LOS35c1,580$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.1335659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed FURIA Esports64c1,549$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.23650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA Esports75c1,465$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.981,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FURIA Esports37c1,464$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.151,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed FURIA Esports32c1,450$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.1262158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed LOS49c1,273$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.7560354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked LOS47c1,223$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.4189050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked LOS45c1,198$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.961,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed FURIA Esports5c1,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed FURIA Esports52c1,046$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.081,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked LOS48c1,016$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.2146258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked LOS45c1,000$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5683560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports59c1,000$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.882,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed LOS49c999.99$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked FURIA Esports32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA Esports55c905.92$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.062,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked FURIA Esports33c904.25$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0711357.5%65 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports14c849$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.133,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed FURIA Esports58c807$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.0634255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked FURIA Esports41c800$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.81,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked FURIA Esports34c800$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2731,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LOS40c786.2$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.991,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed LOS44c783.66$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.8559450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed FURIA Esports54c781.7$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8123946%110 W · 129 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked FURIA Esports2c729.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58422.4%1 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked FURIA Esports43c696.35$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5366559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports51c688.55$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.1662451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed FURIA Esports52c645$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.386251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed LOS46c639$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.061,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe3…eaafbacked LOS49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.244548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e8…fafcbacked FURIA Esports19c603.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9813534.1%46 W · 89 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed FURIA Esports52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FURIA Esports47c559.39$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0460347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed LOS46c512$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4850845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed FURIA Esports51c500$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.945050%25 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FURIA Esports45c500$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.622,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked FURIA Esports6c499.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3067115.4%103 W · 568 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed LOS54c456.41$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.41,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed FURIA Esports54c455$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.759554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked FURIA Esports39c453.52$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.781,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA Esports51c450.22$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.613,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed LOS46c414.57$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3831150.2%156 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed LOS49c410$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.121350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed FURIA Esports42c404$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2820842.3%88 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed LOS50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20011854.2%64 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf896…8704backed FURIA Esports23c349.48$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed FURIA Esports55c330$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.558850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FURIA Esports52c312.42$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4654529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FURIA Esports4c291.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FURIA Esports51c286.04$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8879745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed FURIA Esports7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055110.3%57 W · 494 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked LOS70c278.12$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.261,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked FURIA Esports39c277.94$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.491,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FURIA Esports44c269.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5221458.9%126 W · 88 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed LOS38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1640446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed FURIA Esports19c252.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4880150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed FURIA Esports63c246.26$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.7144851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked FURIA Esports53c232.25$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4340231.3%126 W · 276 L-28.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed FURIA Esports61c228$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.831,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FURIA Esports7c225$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked FURIA Esports59c222.89$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8135058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked FURIA Esports50c219.67$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3634742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked LOS48c208.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5399747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed FURIA Esports52c205.43$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6945338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed LOS49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0856949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked FURIA Esports46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7531439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FURIA Esports65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked FURIA Esports51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10295048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed FURIA Esports50c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.570443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed FURIA Esports51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10219747.7%94 W · 103 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed FURIA Esports64c195.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6682836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed FURIA Esports12c192$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0424835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf67…6842backed FURIA Esports53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011931.1%37 W · 82 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked FURIA Esports53c178.66$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.11,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed LOS48c176.32$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5328042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked FURIA Esports51c170$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.724544.5%109 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed FURIA Esports67c162.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5563426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.