NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8ef442b5c22270e779d09ef21a3306e783c16967f19de29233ebd5356eb6f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 48c | 3,439$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.56 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Over | 49c | 2,036$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.36 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 1,904$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.07 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 51c | 1,872$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.64 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Under | 51c | 1,486$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.68 | 278 | 48.9%136 W · 142 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Under | 52c | 1,335$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.4 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Under | 52c | 1,197$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.59 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Under | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Over | 49c | 732$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Under | 52c | 687.38$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.44 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Under | 52c | 639.6$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.8 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…6591backed Under | 51c | 608.47$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed Over | 49c | 589.79$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Under | 48c | 583.71$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 514$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.28 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Under | 50c | 426$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…91debacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Under | 50c | 335$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 51c | 315.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Over | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed Under | 74c | 260.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.03 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 45c | 252.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Under | 48c | 199.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 52c | 192.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…1ddbbacked Under | 65c | 126$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…09eabacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 18c | 109.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Over | 40c | 108.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…e16cbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 78c | 84.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 26c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Over | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 563 | 52%293 W · 270 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 57c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…c7c8backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Under | 61c | 29.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…9c76backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 228.5this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 223.5Over won
- Pacers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.