NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde1a240a27dacff2c015151bb362439344bb19f27f90ca62a2104616044eda2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 8,070$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…7a8bbacked Over | 54c | 7,558$4,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,476.78 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 3,584$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,835$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.98 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 49c | 1,500$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 53c | 1,023$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.93 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 805$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 53c | 540.68$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.2 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 532.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.29 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 47c | 331$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 274.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 243.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 27c | 164.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 143.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 51c | 126$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 42c | 107.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 51c | 84.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 58c | 75.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a26…dae7backed Over | 52c | 64.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Over | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Under | 41c | 46.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…fa3dbacked Over | 55c | 45.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 43c | 41.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…bf2abacked Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…5aa6backed Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2c19backed Under | 47c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 57c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Miles McBride: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Miles McBride: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Over won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.