F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe87261de4fa274e5e7432ef6683e4b24e605eb0b8927659ad13a70fb45f72d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 79c | 3,384$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.29 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 22c | 2,570$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.43 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked No | 33c | 2,264$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.72 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes | 66c | 1,127$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.28 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x527b…31d0backed No | 32c | 1,000$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 70c | 862.56$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.02 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…c2c2backed No | 9c | 610.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 555$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.45 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 60c | 537.49$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 70c | 252.65$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 51c | 250.87$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 206.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 64c | 203.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 166.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…0d4cbacked No | 20c | 157.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 17c | 150.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 8c | 138.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 28c | 116.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…8ccdbacked No | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 22c | 111.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…d43cbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 19c | 93.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…8973backed Yes | 75c | 80.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 43c | 65.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 61c | 63.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…0913backed No | 34c | 59.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 45.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 44c | 44.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 57c | 42.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…cfbdbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8b…9d9abacked Yes | 78c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…56a8backed No | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…cb96backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 61c | 29.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…a93cbacked Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 73c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Yes | 47c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…b49ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.