Fifa International · resolved market
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06d60e080d35e2c9cad2d3050bb88dd035b6c9edbde63d89746088f0a410d15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4df…54dbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,370$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.1 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 733.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 460.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 31c | 424.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 416.16$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 22c | 394.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 77c | 279$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 243.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 75c | 238.95$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…d2cabacked Yes | 21c | 168.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 61c | 168.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 77c | 135.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed Yes | 11c | 127.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 23c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 98.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…31bebacked Yes | 23c | 88.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 88.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 85.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 74.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 24c | 63.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…22f7backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 32.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…2d46backed No | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 79c | 24.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…b3e1backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.