Fifa International · resolved market
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98703dfa5df4b810f4b467483ea341db49496513f84aba9ca544462b34602555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13e0…a97ebacked Yes | 71c | 4,208$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.27 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…3f46backed Yes | 58c | 1,176$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.17 | 97 | 23.7%23 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 35c | 808.58$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.48 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 29c | 724.34$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.71 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Yes | 67c | 669.5$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.93 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 26c | 639.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.71 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 635$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 40c | 500$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.8 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 25c | 491.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…77f2backed No | 29c | 475$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 49c | 440$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 58c | 415.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked No | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 384$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…ce35backed Yes | 74c | 366$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked No | 4c | 340.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 330$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 30c | 321$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 311.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…e816backed No | 30c | 300.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 277.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 60c | 254.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 55c | 244.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 157 | 47.8%75 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 55c | 205.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 42c | 203.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…7fe9backed No | 29c | 198.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed No | 30c | 197.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 47c | 189.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 68c | 152.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…9537backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 66c | 145$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 144.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…eac1backed Yes | 70c | 143.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…b5fdbacked Yes | 71c | 141.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 42c | 103$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…cf06backed No | 32c | 98.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 24c | 79.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 40c | 78.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 70.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 39c | 60.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 47c | 59.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 50.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 50.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…0ec5backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…ce27backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…ae97backed Yes | 72c | 44.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 64c | 41.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…8dd2backed Yes | 26c | 39.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +7.2wins | +0.36per pick | 19cpaid | +146%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed No | 30c | 39.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 248 | 43.1%107 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…01fabacked Yes | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…2453backed No | 63c | 34.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 30c | 33.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 32.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…7e04backed Yes | 51c | 26.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…35b1backed Yes | 75c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 64c | 22.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…5e27backed Yes | 68c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…4e3bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 68c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4766…8092backed Yes | 72c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Croatia win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.