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Euroleague · resolved market

Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zalgiris Kaunasof Zalgiris Kaunas, Fenerbahce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,931

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,653 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Zalgiris Kaunas58c19,659$11,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,171.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Fenerbahce43c11,891$5,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,108.611258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe435…549bbacked Fenerbahce45c8,307$3,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c7,455$4,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,321.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Zalgiris Kaunas15c6,887$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,832.33336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Fenerbahce48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…7504backed Fenerbahce52c5,849$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-58%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c4,420$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Zalgiris Kaunas25c4,323$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,224.053735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Zalgiris Kaunas27c2,921$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.725151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Fenerbahce72c2,586$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.7513650%68 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c2,541$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.96338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e58…8e90backed Fenerbahce48c2,337$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c2,220$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Zalgiris Kaunas44c2,142$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.522937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Zalgiris Kaunas43c1,990$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.173060%18 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Fenerbahce45c1,975$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0236939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Zalgiris Kaunas27c1,900$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Fenerbahce45c1,789$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.2916235.2%57 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas50c1,712$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.716744.8%30 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Zalgiris Kaunas30c1,452$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.2713545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fenerbahce45c1,413$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.8643543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Zalgiris Kaunas35c1,300$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.998936%32 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Fenerbahce72c1,300$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.1313046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Fenerbahce52c1,094$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5661258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa164…7d86backed Fenerbahce45c1,092$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Fenerbahce45c1,045$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4723345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Zalgiris Kaunas57c1,028$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fenerbahce41c1,005$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.731947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c999.87$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.753855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…0d62backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c973.33$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c950.6$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Zalgiris Kaunas47c948.69$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.9237052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Fenerbahce60c880$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53211455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Zalgiris Kaunas42c810.46$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.334344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ada…d690backed Fenerbahce47c685.1$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+56.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x638d…3d87backed Fenerbahce70c602.97$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Zalgiris Kaunas25c533.02$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.8921535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc46…79c4backed Zalgiris Kaunas32c532.16$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.962321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a5c…f951backed Fenerbahce59c507.51$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ce…356dbacked Fenerbahce49c502.65$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fenerbahce41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20524430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1995…9921backed Fenerbahce60c449.04$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae3…cd3bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas54c398.03$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Zalgiris Kaunas53c388$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+70.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Zalgiris Kaunas45c380.74$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.336747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Zalgiris Kaunas16c377.72$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+542%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Fenerbahce46c367.27$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.94425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c362.96$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed Fenerbahce50c358.35$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.18650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Fenerbahce56c358.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-62.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Fenerbahce61c314.84$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.311656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c308.55$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.855752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a88…3dadbacked Fenerbahce45c299.97$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Zalgiris Kaunas50c291.45$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.458247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Fenerbahce38c289.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.215152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56d6…4404backed Fenerbahce46c270$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Zalgiris Kaunas30c260$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Fenerbahce78c257.48$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764f…6b8abacked Zalgiris Kaunas54c251.37$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.532157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Fenerbahce48c251.05$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.53528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fenerbahce43c251.02$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2831651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88c5…2909backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e97…0bd0backed Fenerbahce50c247.64$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7798…eb91backed Fenerbahce44c238.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas20c233.24$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2410736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a60…211ebacked Zalgiris Kaunas54c230.2$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ff…d56cbacked Zalgiris Kaunas54c227.27$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.273050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7847…4007backed Fenerbahce45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Fenerbahce51c218.56$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c06…aa42backed Fenerbahce46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Fenerbahce49c211.75$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Fenerbahce23c209.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Fenerbahce45c206$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+49.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe477…8c6dbacked Fenerbahce73c205.48$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2104…82d7backed Fenerbahce49c204.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344f…1a45backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89e…d4a7backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c195.79$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Zalgiris Kaunas19c180.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.061957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas52c175.48$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.131850%9 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Fenerbahce51c175.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Fenerbahce44c174$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.812454%67 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas57c173.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9610663.2%67 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Fenerbahce56c170.34$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.547042.9%30 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Fenerbahce48c169.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…7a6bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas39c168$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.962548%12 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Zalgiris Kaunas34c167.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd3…0d61backed Fenerbahce48c162.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Zalgiris Kaunas49c155.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.69560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Zalgiris Kaunas50c152.35$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.471546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Fenerbahce65c149.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.31546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Fenerbahce47c149.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b5…5b12backed Zalgiris Kaunas19c139$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Fenerbahce47c122.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1421444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Zalgiris Kaunas35c120$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Zalgiris Kaunas44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Fenerbahce47c106.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…8077backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c101.85$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e30…5629backed Fenerbahce45c101.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f3…a7dbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.