NBA · resolved market
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3cc3e2020dbc43f82b919d3615fa48f469405c22ec9f4185122dfc203bf241d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,173 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Yes | 36c | 840.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.08 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Yes | 31c | 638.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 37c | 502.42$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.01 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 63c | 433.24$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.94 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 65c | 370.85$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.78 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Yes | 35c | 318.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked No | 70c | 248$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 65c | 154.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked No | 66c | 134.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 62c | 115.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 66c | 110$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79b4…c59fbacked No | 62c | 104.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 75 | 69.3%52 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…5e13backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 94.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 64c | 58.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 52c | 52.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 64c | 46.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…e905backed No | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HeatSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.