NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74a9f490ac16d65d329f1109b4b1a542526d492c0f6e653a39ffc490d580eb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,045 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3115…ea44backed Over | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 62c | 889.35$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…7e53backed Over | 53c | 780$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 57c | 628.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…24cabacked Under | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 558.73$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 506.28$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Under | 43c | 468.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 42c | 347.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 43c | 256.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 54c | 222.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9da5backed Over | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 38c | 190.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 33c | 153.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 31c | 113.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 94.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Under | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 39c | 89.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Over | 60c | 87.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 55c | 85.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 58c | 79.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 59c | 72.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 31c | 63.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 60.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 47c | 53.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 58c | 49.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 47.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 35c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 35.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 76c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…d477backed Over | 79c | 33.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479a…f7f1backed Under | 45c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 40c | 30.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…9ae2backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 51c | 28.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 74c | 25.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 24.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Over | 71c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 51c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…c830backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068a…6fe7backed Over | 61c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HeatSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.