NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee49e09b381943117822516515801e698daae3dedc0ad29b95e328d876188393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,499 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 4,282$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Over | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,029$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Over | 52c | 917.31$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.31 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 40c | 537.85$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.58 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 51c | 519.23$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.81 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Over | 59c | 509.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 49c | 507.1$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.62 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 468.61$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Over | 52c | 366.92$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 42c | 365.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.73 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 21c | 215.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…593ebacked Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +9.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +291%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…ce94backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…e39ebacked Under | 8c | 186.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 39c | 176.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Over | 52c | 119.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 114.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…4812backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 59c | 78.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 49c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Over | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…4182backed Under | 49c | 53.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Under | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…9afbbacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 55c | 41.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…6b2abacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked Under | 42c | 33.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 23.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HeatSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.