NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4104cd403e41e7753fa2589593e60e73f94396c82b2bbc52eaf98c4edd04cdc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,675 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 54c | 73,952$39,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,017.95 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Under | 46c | 38,309$17,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,622.14 | 286 | 49.7%142 W · 144 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e4…84d3backed Under | 46c | 13,042$5,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 54c | 10,304$5,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,739.99 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 46c | 6,426$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.96 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Under | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 46c | 4,344$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.21 | 215 | 49.8%107 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 3,915$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 46c | 2,820$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d6…be17backed Over | 58c | 2,167$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.14 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 2,018$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 2,016$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.91 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 42c | 1,999$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.46 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Under | 45c | 1,948$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.6 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 46c | 1,529$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.47 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 35c | 1,464$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.3 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 1,383$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.26 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 46c | 1,060$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Under | 46c | 1,060$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 46c | 978.26$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Under | 46c | 707.61$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 642.08$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.44 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 55c | 454$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.3 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 454$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.3 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 35c | 370.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 353$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 18c | 253.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 57c | 176.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 293 | 45.7%134 W · 159 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 36c | 172.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 8c | 139.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 45c | 127.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 127.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 28c | 102.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Over | 58c | 92.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 77.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 46c | 76.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 55c | 75.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 56c | 71.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 18c | 66.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 107 | 18.7%20 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…57e6backed Over | 57c | 50.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 59c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 38c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 63c | 45.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 42c | 43.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 38.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Over | 55c | 34.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 51c | 33.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 75c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Under | 39c | 27.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Under | 44c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…4812backed Over | 58c | 25.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Over | 58c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 59c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.7wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HeatSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.