Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4bea403caacb529423812ca7a5de55c74865c346d5abf10c1538714b8e03a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 38c | 6,127$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.87 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 3,305$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.26 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 2,227$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.88 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 38c | 1,938$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.83 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 64c | 1,400$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 1,375$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.45 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 39c | 1,104$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.36 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,025$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.18 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 59c | 970.91$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.84 | 153 | 61.4%94 W · 59 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e9…239bbacked Yes | 45c | 888.37$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 61c | 866.42$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 64c | 736.01$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 41c | 675.6$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.61 | 265 | 49.4%131 W · 134 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 26c | 619.59$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 113 | 26.5%30 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 61c | 578.66$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.34 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 41c | 555$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 39c | 552.21$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.18 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 2c | 549$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 500.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.06 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 62c | 443.58$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.41 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 54c | 433.06$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 38c | 399.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.61 | 306 | 46.7%143 W · 163 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 80c | 353.62$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 64c | 320$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 68c | 314$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 64c | 312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 62c | 290.31$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 43c | 281.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.98 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 40c | 280.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.57 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 64c | 253.72$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 62c | 220$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 61c | 215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 54c | 197.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 61c | 163.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 62c | 162.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 24c | 146.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -11.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 62c | 134.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 37c | 133.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 59c | 128.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 20c | 94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 15c | 85.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 15c | 77.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -14.9wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 41c | 75.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 43c | 69.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 41c | 68.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 64.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 59c | 58.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 63c | 50.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 60c | 49.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 398 | 52.5%209 W · 189 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed No | 59c | 43.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 67c | 40.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 37c | 37.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 60c | 34.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Yes | 36c | 30.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Yes | 67c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…c790backed Yes | 67c | 26.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 39c | 26.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 237 | 43.9%104 W · 133 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe255…0d6ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 58c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Yes | 74c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 61c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 64c | 19.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 80c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-11?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-05-11?No won
- Will CD Santa Clara vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.