CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs 777 (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e24e3ab81f863f7ebefb3900938c291d39dd074931a266976fa00026109385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BASEMENT BOYSof BASEMENT BOYS, 777
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed BASEMENT BOYS | 75c | 4,181$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.93 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked 777 | 34c | 2,064$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.72 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 777 | 25c | 1,716$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.05 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 777 | 26c | 1,656$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.27 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed 777 | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed 777 | 46c | 1,076$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked BASEMENT BOYS | 64c | 892.37$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.56 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed BASEMENT BOYS | 62c | 847.15$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 244 | 57%139 W · 105 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…cf4bbacked 777 | 25c | 606.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked 777 | 28c | 570.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 64c | 522.63$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.02 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…c71ebacked 777 | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked 777 | 34c | 471.57$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 149 | 39.6%59 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked 777 | 18c | 446.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…6efcbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 64c | 430.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…0e6abacked 777 | 7c | 385.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed 777 | 26c | 382.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -10.0wins | -0.24per pick | 45cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed 777 | 34c | 367.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked 777 | 14c | 349.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 110 | 2.7%3 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…3532backed BASEMENT BOYS | 68c | 305$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed 777 | 34c | 295.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed 777 | 13c | 286.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked 777 | 14c | 277.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed BASEMENT BOYS | 79c | 268.63$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed BASEMENT BOYS | 65c | 245.71$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 186 | 57%106 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed 777 | 24c | 243.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…5c16backed 777 | 16c | 241.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed 777 | 18c | 239$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 165 | 27.9%46 W · 119 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed 777 | 18c | 234.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked 777 | 10c | 216.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…f0a4backed 777 | 58c | 203.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…c6c7backed 777 | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed 777 | 25c | 172.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed 777 | 10c | 168$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 62c | 167.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed 777 | 26c | 162$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed 777 | 28c | 156.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed 777 | 20c | 152.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 60c | 148.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed BASEMENT BOYS | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…3f56backed 777 | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…68dfbacked 777 | 30c | 132.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ab…9a41backed BASEMENT BOYS | 72c | 114.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked 777 | 17c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed 777 | 9c | 112.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 130 | 30.8%40 W · 90 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed BASEMENT BOYS | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe0…4fafbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…8b17backed 777 | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed BASEMENT BOYS | 69c | 95.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed BASEMENT BOYS | 76c | 91.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…349cbacked 777 | 12c | 91.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d3…7030backed 777 | 19c | 79.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed 777 | 21c | 76.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed 777 | 31c | 72.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed 777 | 39c | 67.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 434 | 42.2%183 W · 251 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked 777 | 22c | 62.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed 777 | 24c | 60.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BASEMENT BOYS | 76c | 59.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed 777 | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 38.1%235 W · 381 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed BASEMENT BOYS | 69c | 54.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6827…26fdbacked 777 | 39c | 54.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…3224backed 777 | 38c | 52.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked 777 | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed BASEMENT BOYS | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 72c | 48.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 66c | 48.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…ea80backed BASEMENT BOYS | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 196 | 55.1%108 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…cbe5backed 777 | 47c | 44.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…c6f9backed BASEMENT BOYS | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 65c | 41.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…592fbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 76c | 36.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…e70bbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 77c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed BASEMENT BOYS | 65c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed BASEMENT BOYS | 65c | 27.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed BASEMENT BOYS | 75c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 71cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed BASEMENT BOYS | 75c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked BASEMENT BOYS | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked BASEMENT BOYS | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs 777 (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs 777 - Map 1 WinnerBASEMENT BOYS won
- Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs 777 - Map 2 Winner777 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.