MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca09c10248cda4825c3d5b5a07b36b8e478f7d853879f2d05b1ad8c6fdc84e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 55c | 332,465$181,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181,820.71 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 100,000$46,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,000 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Over | 45c | 65,000$29,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,750 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 44,007$19,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,199.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Over | 45c | 30,000$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,500 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 45c | 15,000$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,250 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 13,019$5,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,160.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e6ddbacked Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 8,246$3,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,535.07 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 7,992$3,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,395.46 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 4,684$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 3,286$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 3,238$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.08 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 3,052$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 45c | 1,780$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 1,778$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.85 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 1,620$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 46c | 1,006$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.31 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 934.3$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 907.96$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.22 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 800$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.91 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 734.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.49 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 46c | 683.62$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.01 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 651.56$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.33 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 50c | 460$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 55c | 447.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 443.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.87 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 398$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 396.96$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 369$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 52c | 316.08$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 53c | 296$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 277.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 221.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 45c | 202$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 54c | 196.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 53c | 195$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Over | 57c | 181.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 47c | 181.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 68c | 164.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 160$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 46c | 156.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Over | 45c | 128$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 117.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 48c | 116.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 45c | 115.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 81.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 79.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 67.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…b4f5backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 47c | 42.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Over | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 53c | 33.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…9384backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…3273backed Under | 55c | 32.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 51c | 32.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 53c | 30.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 55c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 45c | 27.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 47c | 26.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 76c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.