MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca5c0ec5f833802a975b78d82ff40abfd864f0207aebcb5334d08f43e1842dc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Soxof Red Sox, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Sox | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.99 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Royals | 51c | 5,280$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.96 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Red Sox | 59c | 2,440$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.4 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 41c | 2,355$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.56 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Royals | 51c | 1,555$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.05 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 49c | 1,442$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.61 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Royals | 50c | 926.02$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.65 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Royals | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 17c | 837.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Red Sox | 49c | 812.52$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Red Sox | 50c | 785.28$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.64 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 51c | 594.39$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.14 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Royals | 9c | 579.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 48c | 578.75$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.52 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Royals | 53c | 456.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…4280backed Royals | 13c | 376.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Red Sox | 49c | 371.43$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.43 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…be32backed Royals | 58c | 343.49$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Red Sox | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Red Sox | 75c | 294$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Royals | 10c | 251.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Red Sox | 51c | 243.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Royals | 49c | 212.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Red Sox | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Red Sox | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Red Sox | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Red Sox | 49c | 192.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Royals | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Royals | 53c | 190.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Royals | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Royals | 51c | 169.45$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox | 64c | 169.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Red Sox | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Royals | 13c | 127.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Royals | 17c | 111.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Red Sox | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Red Sox | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Red Sox | 50c | 101.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Red Sox | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…d298backed Red Sox | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Red Sox | 50c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Royals | 34c | 81.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 24c | 80.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Royals | 52c | 78.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Royals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Royals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed Royals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Royals | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Royals | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Royals | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Red Sox | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Red Sox | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cab…f4ecbacked Red Sox | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…f37fbacked Royals | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…b328backed Red Sox | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…ee80backed Red Sox | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…f62dbacked Royals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Royals | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…1152backed Red Sox | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Royals | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Royals | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Red Sox | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…83e2backed Red Sox | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…5606backed Red Sox | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…576fbacked Red Sox | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…bf81backed Royals | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…663ebacked Royals | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Red Sox | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Red Sox | 48c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…3584backed Royals | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Royals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.