TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Split: Matej Dodig vs Mili Poljicak

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mili Poljicakof Matej Dodig, Mili Poljicak
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca1…dd13backed Matej Dodig30c13,284$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.614645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Mili Poljicak77c7,653$5,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.7249252.4%258 W · 234 L+28.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Matej Dodig15c5,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7701,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Mili Poljicak66c4,352$2,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.3880938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Matej Dodig32c4,263$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.532,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mili Poljicak58c2,528$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.757,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Matej Dodig50c1,981$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Mili Poljicak71c1,977$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.964,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Matej Dodig44c1,930$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.9311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454f…8df5backed Matej Dodig50c1,720$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…8c02backed Mili Poljicak50c1,672$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.95475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Mili Poljicak61c1,379$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.022,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Matej Dodig17c1,345$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.563,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Matej Dodig38c1,220$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.8865558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Mili Poljicak47c1,074$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.5829637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Matej Dodig53c1,051$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…695abacked Matej Dodig55c998.01$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.241735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9175…bd29backed Matej Dodig55c899.99$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.628446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mili Poljicak45c899.99$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4953,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Matej Dodig38c872.82$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6725544.7%114 W · 141 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Mili Poljicak76c765.44$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0424962.2%155 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Mili Poljicak46c758.76$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.732,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Matej Dodig35c635.41$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.674,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked Matej Dodig56c536.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020643.2%89 W · 117 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Mili Poljicak57c524.38$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8872542.6%309 W · 416 L-20.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Matej Dodig33c520.19$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.321,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Mili Poljicak46c509.44$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.7322337.7%84 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe0…6e30backed Matej Dodig21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Matej Dodig54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Mili Poljicak67c496$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.224,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Mili Poljicak44c494.37$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.321,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Mili Poljicak44c434.89$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5458232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Mili Poljicak52c387.92$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.224438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Mili Poljicak47c385.28$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.481,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Mili Poljicak58c370.83$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.292,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Matej Dodig54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cda…2de5backed Matej Dodig51c367.06$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.26157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d8c…35b0backed Matej Dodig56c358.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022465.2%146 W · 78 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Mili Poljicak44c340.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.911,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Mili Poljicak44c336.81$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.614,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4684…3944backed Matej Dodig30c328.46$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Mili Poljicak66c306$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0452854.9%290 W · 238 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Matej Dodig7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216718.6%31 W · 136 L-23.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-54.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Mili Poljicak44c299.18$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5458734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Mili Poljicak64c296.3$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.691,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Mili Poljicak58c266.06$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.656,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Matej Dodig39c256.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.27714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-79%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe22…b709backed Mili Poljicak66c249.68$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9312656.3%71 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Mili Poljicak64c237.22$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.41,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Mili Poljicak43c232.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5232851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d63…8b8cbacked Mili Poljicak49c222.45$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.453154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Mili Poljicak45c220$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Matej Dodig8c218$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Mili Poljicak47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7719052.6%100 W · 90 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Mili Poljicak46c204.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.37,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Mili Poljicak68c197.73$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6251445.5%234 W · 280 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Mili Poljicak44c189.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.410242.2%43 W · 59 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6353…777fbacked Mili Poljicak76c182.82$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.882568%17 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Mili Poljicak64c173.42$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.746,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Mili Poljicak64c165.13$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4537153.9%200 W · 171 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Mili Poljicak64c162.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6841658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Mili Poljicak45c159.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8834154.3%185 W · 156 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Mili Poljicak44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849745.4%44 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mili Poljicak68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc539…5ec2backed Mili Poljicak47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9432843.9%144 W · 184 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6598…5f36backed Matej Dodig51c147.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Mili Poljicak69c141$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.44,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Matej Dodig45c140.69$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Mili Poljicak60c140$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.446556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Matej Dodig46c135$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.542,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Mili Poljicak69c130$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9855941.9%234 W · 325 L-27.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Mili Poljicak67c125.88$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1795846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54c…6a13backed Matej Dodig37c113.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7214355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Matej Dodig54c112.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.821,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked Matej Dodig33c106.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515514.2%22 W · 133 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Mili Poljicak66c105$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3630844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8742…5e43backed Matej Dodig33c99.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.982528%7 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Mili Poljicak44c98.14$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1729952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Matej Dodig51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Mili Poljicak70c94.1$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0761924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Matej Dodig35c92.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.67146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc45…2957backed Matej Dodig55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.54862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d1d…3f8dbacked Matej Dodig55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mili Poljicak45c86.02$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.971,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Matej Dodig45c83.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0657267.3%385 W · 187 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Mili Poljicak65c83.37$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.94,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed Matej Dodig35c82.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2924460.7%148 W · 96 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4fa…f25ebacked Matej Dodig33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517840.4%72 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x150c…add3backed Matej Dodig55c72.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020670.4%145 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Matej Dodig56c71.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026254.6%143 W · 119 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Matej Dodig32c71.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6384736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6617…dfb9backed Matej Dodig56c70.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5424249.2%119 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Matej Dodig56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1525152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Matej Dodig35c69.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5748652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Matej Dodig28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.248650.6%246 W · 240 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af1…f988backed Mili Poljicak44c65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.47945.6%36 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Mili Poljicak45c65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7554434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4198…dfa6backed Matej Dodig38c63.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Matej Dodig18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.86,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Matej Dodig35c59.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8732050%160 W · 160 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.