TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Lionel Messi: 1+ shots

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No6c20,125$1,208 inLost-$1,207.9637350.1%187 W · 186 L+45.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed No1c2,276$18 inLost-$18.2110614.2%15 W · 91 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522b…8671backed No5c1,700$88 inLost-$87.770%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No5c1,604$80 inLost-$801,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6648…4798backed No1c1,600$15 inLost-$15.57748.1%37 W · 40 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No2c1,224$20 inLost-$20.11,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed3…3e35backed No5c904.79$45 inLost-$44.920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbef0…86efbacked No5c801$40 inLost-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No6c473.98$30 inLost-$29.926366.7%42 W · 21 L+12.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+52.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed No5c313.54$15 inLost-$151717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…0c6fbacked No8c220.97$17 inLost-$16.9718.5%6 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No5c215.05$11 inLost-$10.623,28649.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L+6.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa8…645bbacked No7c200$14 inLost-$13.68326.5%22 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f1…dc7cbacked No7c145.9$10 inLost-$10.1718441.8%77 W · 107 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed No14c121.22$17 inLost-$16.6818436.4%67 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.