TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Bulls: O/U 226.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,272 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over57c17,649$10,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,005.7843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Over50c16,000$7,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,977.125945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c7,941$3,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,326.729,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over45c4,620$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.914,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over2c4,365$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.867921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c4,121$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.654,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Under55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c3,860$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.034,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over49c3,237$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.712,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c2,417$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.13,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under46c2,213$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.9926544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under50c2,190$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0951968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a5…419dbacked Under50c2,010$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Under52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Under50c1,963$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.5917144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under50c1,423$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.330446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Under43c1,044$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.322143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c1,029$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Over51c990$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.934855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under50c945.02$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.552,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c910.22$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.318,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c802.38$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.43,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under45c800$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Over49c700$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34066645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…ee95backed Under42c590.68$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.686137.7%23 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over57c568.82$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.236,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca0f…780bbacked Under42c522.21$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.882948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under47c500$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under46c408.58$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.662,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under48c358.4$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.3712552%65 W · 60 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.1452146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Over8c350$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2828616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under42c340.83$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8345646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Over48c335.42$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16118749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under55c311.23$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5445452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under56c295.02$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.943,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under46c247.5$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.252,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under47c242$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2654246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5643447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under43c209.72$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5435843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under43c209.59$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under40c180$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under48c156.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8478648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under40c148.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.882,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e8…ed04backed Under42c142.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.866342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Over17c121.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1211128.8%32 W · 79 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under47c113.38$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0962541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under43c105.31$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0364844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over54c99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.461,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under50c96.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.361,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5457250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Over51c88.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1918459.2%109 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f59…bd2dbacked Under77c88.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.263663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Under60c82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.122140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under47c74.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4755444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…ecbfbacked Under47c74.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.474837.5%18 W · 30 L-6.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Under43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.779550.5%48 W · 47 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under49c68.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.621,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under47c58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7446447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Under53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.621637.5%81 W · 135 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2766143.4%287 W · 374 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under42c48.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3652552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under45c44.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4836350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over36c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5388057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over58c38.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over43c38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.345,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under40c37.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.862049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under43c37.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2860945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2037344.2%165 W · 208 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Under57c36.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8510145.5%46 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under60c33.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.314359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x353f…bdd4backed Over44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.24062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under67c28.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.163,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under52c27.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.362,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over50c27.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6662844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under42c26.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4137949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Over48c25.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.346841.2%28 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb15…f4f8backed Over60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158254.9%45 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1532947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Over55c24.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7245653.5%244 W · 212 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Over60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Over53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.615253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Over60c18.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under69c18.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.