TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bullsof Thunder, Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$873,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$972,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $873,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Thunder46c461,488$213,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,124.9287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Bulls53c170,000$90,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,899.7943148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bulls54c112,436$60,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,727.5526253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Bulls54c70,000$37,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,20032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Thunder47c53,191$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Bulls54c40,000$21,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,40012639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls51c35,371$18,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,299.292,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bulls54c32,500$17,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,9501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Bulls54c18,519$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,518.5216640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3290…1135backed Thunder49c13,978$6,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,814.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls52c12,344$6,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,950.554,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked Bulls54c12,037$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,537.042740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Bulls54c12,000$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5209343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Bulls54c11,657$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,356.5748546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls53c11,640$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,443.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls54c11,626$6,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,348.222,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Bulls54c10,185$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,685.1938946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bulls54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bulls54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175e…49b4backed Thunder49c9,755$4,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7802937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Bulls54c9,259$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.269531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Thunder49c8,918$4,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,369.824742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bulls55c7,999$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.272,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder49c7,727$3,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,786.4570246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Thunder46c7,700$3,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.9826544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder42c7,370$3,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,123.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Bulls54c6,862$3,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.3637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder46c6,614$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.261,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder46c6,600$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,03658449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Thunder47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Thunder49c5,521$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.430446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Thunder49c5,245$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Thunder47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bulls51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bulls51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.991,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f1…4c8abacked Thunder49c4,900$2,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4241225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Bulls54c4,637$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.049952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls52c4,636$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.4548343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…be52backed Bulls54c4,576$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,104.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bulls54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls53c3,816$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Bulls53c3,585$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.9126648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder47c3,191$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder47c3,087$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.7992753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dc…cabbbacked Thunder49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Thunder49c2,796$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37019445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Bulls52c2,660$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.256439.1%25 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Thunder49c2,520$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,23434854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Thunder49c2,502$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.9832150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Thunder47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17543348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Bulls51c2,201$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.731,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Bulls53c2,128$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0006055%33 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Thunder48c2,120$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.622143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder48c2,055$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.284,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Thunder49c2,013$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98451354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf092…f999backed Bulls51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Thunder49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9808361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Bulls53c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.8826637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Bulls54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8511249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Thunder49c1,837$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90024450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder47c1,793$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.716,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3153…1dbcbacked Bulls51c1,700$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8332065%13 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Bulls54c1,613$871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.8213563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls51c1,603$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.244,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Bulls54c1,546$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.325452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Thunder47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70533146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Thunder47c1,500$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70567252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Thunder48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Thunder49c1,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73550239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Bulls42c1,500$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86514448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls52c1,392$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.13,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb9…0879backed Thunder50c1,378$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef1…202ebacked Bulls50c1,322$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6612100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda42…f683backed Thunder50c1,264$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a71…dd74backed Bulls50c1,249$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64ca…8f50backed Thunder50c1,236$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d8…44c4backed Thunder50c1,134$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Bulls54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1114450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1425…9e2cbacked Bulls50c1,096$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6445…0d8fbacked Bulls50c1,052$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7356…b839backed Thunder42c1,020$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.391450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a0…78aabacked Bulls50c1,008$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5173…a2adbacked Thunder50c1,004$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Thunder51c1,002$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Bulls54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Thunder46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Bulls54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46021139.8%84 W · 127 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Thunder46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46014244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Bulls50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50012045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Bulls52c999.99$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9995641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63de…b134backed Bulls50c992$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f8a…2b96backed Thunder50c988$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1736…accbbacked Thunder50c976$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9668…2d5cbacked Bulls50c976$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf520…2f5abacked Thunder50c972$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.