NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5341cdd86172df019631b48edba504f538ce2e3f51c84916e6b0099ed6e854

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Cavaliers, Nets
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $40,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,745 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x163e…dc5bbacked Cavaliers	58c	20,077$11,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,643.32	207	58%120 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nets	42c	14,128$5,934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,194.3	596	46.1%275 W · 321 L	-16.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Nets	42c	5,483$2,302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,180.65	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nets	42c	1,508$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.56	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Cavaliers	58c	1,500$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.5	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nets	42c	1,416$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$821.28	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Cavaliers	58c	858.6$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	95	58.9%56 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nets	42c	616.47$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$359.46	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Cavaliers	56c	600$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Cavaliers	57c	521.85$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers	58c	517.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Cavaliers	8c	486.28$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e3…2e82backed Cavaliers	57c	441.02$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nets	43c	440.82$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.96	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nets	43c	336.72$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.84	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nets	45c	259$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.27	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Cavaliers	50c	249.7$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.44	144	56.3%81 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers	41c	232.14$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.44	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nets	43c	229.5$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.7	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nets	42c	221.4$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.44	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nets	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nets	43c	160.26$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.85	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d76…dc94backed Cavaliers	57c	156.17$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.06	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f2…2cb0backed Cavaliers	69c	145.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Cavaliers	69c	145.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	432	69.2%299 W · 133 L	+10.7wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Cavaliers	57c	142.7$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.92	102	43.1%44 W · 58 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…a569backed Cavaliers	57c	139.14$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	238	47.1%112 W · 126 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Cavaliers	30c	132.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets	47c	128.79$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.83	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Nets	43c	127.03$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Nets	44c	123.96$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.42	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Cavaliers	29c	123.9$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers	59c	118.64$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Cavaliers	58c	117.41$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	231	43.3%100 W · 131 L	-13.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Nets	42c	107.14$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.14	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70db…dba8backed Cavaliers	58c	103.04$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nets	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nets	42c	96.9$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.06	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Cavaliers	37c	90$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea33…ae06backed Cavaliers	58c	89$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.62	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Cavaliers	57c	88.88$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.03	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers	35c	85.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Cavaliers	58c	85$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.3	131	42.7%56 W · 75 L	-8.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cavaliers	59c	84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.56	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc83…215cbacked Cavaliers	60c	83.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets	30c	75.82$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.07	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Cavaliers	56c	72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Nets	64c	71$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.21	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Cavaliers	21c	66.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	155	34.2%53 W · 102 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	43c	65.51$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.07	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Cavaliers	50c	65.49$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Nets	46c	64.19$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.66	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b79…722bbacked Cavaliers	32c	59.89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.2wins	+0.28per pick	34cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Cavaliers	20c	59.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Cavaliers	58c	58.17$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Cavaliers	54c	57.04$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93e3…e590backed Nets	42c	52.06$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.19	64	37.5%24 W · 40 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Cavaliers	58c	51.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	48c	50.96$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Nets	61c	45.44$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.62	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Nets	42c	45$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.1	223	36.8%82 W · 141 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Nets	57c	44$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.13	308	40.9%126 W · 182 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nets	69c	43$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	385	40.3%155 W · 230 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5045…c44dbacked Cavaliers	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf841…b2ebbacked Cavaliers	57c	35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	140	49.3%69 W · 71 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1f…48a4backed Cavaliers	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	48.6%53 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Cavaliers	41c	31.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Cavaliers	57c	28.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	65	61.5%40 W · 25 L	+5.4wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Cavaliers	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	112	44.6%50 W · 62 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Nets	63c	26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.73	469	40.3%189 W · 280 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Cavaliers	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	168	49.4%83 W · 85 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abc…509cbacked Nets	78c	25.64$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6436…aa37backed Nets	42c	25.52$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cavaliers	58c	24.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	251	50.6%127 W · 124 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Cavaliers	59c	23.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea05…6e25backed Cavaliers	56c	23.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Nets	65c	19.4$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.88	139	50.4%70 W · 69 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb55b…be21backed Cavaliers	59c	17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.15per pick	61cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce66…8e63backed Nets	72c	16.67$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Nets won
Cavaliers vs. NetsCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineNets won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 213.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 225.5Under won
Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
James Harden: Assists O/U 8.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 11.5No won
Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Sam Merrill: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nets won
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nets won
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Nets won
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Nets won
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Nets won
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Nets won
Terance Mann: Points O/U 6.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event