Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd035bb5eee1737caefe3df52b38b489e4148530a43be1f78f5a9dc60570a70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 71c | 6,687$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed No | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 3,847$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.77 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 23c | 3,076$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 3,020$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.4 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 21c | 2,050$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 79c | 1,816$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.19 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed Yes | 23c | 1,502$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Yes | 15c | 1,374$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 79c | 1,214$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.3 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 412 | 53.2%219 W · 193 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 955.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 329 | 39.5%130 W · 199 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 80c | 837.5$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 831.69$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 348 | 52.9%184 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 818.81$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 71c | 604.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc134…feddbacked Yes | 21c | 580$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 79c | 561.7$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 72c | 524.58$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 79c | 488.08$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 474 | 47.9%227 W · 247 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 13c | 427$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed No | 79c | 422.75$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 400$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +11.1wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 21c | 385.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 79c | 379.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 79c | 343.96$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…ffe4backed Yes | 16c | 327.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 177.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 720 | 50.1%361 W · 359 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 75c | 160.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 21c | 157.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed Yes | 17c | 136.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 78c | 134.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 128.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 20c | 121.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…53cdbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 87.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 21c | 86.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed Yes | 21c | 77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 72.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 999 | 44.7%447 W · 552 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 17c | 65.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 329 | 59%194 W · 135 L | +28.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…c111backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…fbdcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 37c | 48.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +8.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 439 | 55.4%243 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…060dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 80c | 27.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…6431backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 80c | 21.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 68c | 19.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…c5b1backed No | 80c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…6e45backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28?Yes won
- Will Venezia FC win on 2026-08-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.