TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,434 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec54…e8c1backed Warriors51c998.41$509 inLost-$509.199447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Lakers50c970$485 inWon+$48557444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Lakers49c948.07$465 inWon+$483.525352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors50c903.5$452 inLost-$451.892,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Warriors55c440.5$242 inLost-$242.282462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a8…95b7backed Lakers64c306.67$196 inWon+$110.812441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers50c271.6$136 inWon+$135.821950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors13c169.86$21 inLost-$21.51,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Lakers77c101.9$78 inWon+$23.4433159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Warriors50c100.67$50 inLost-$50.42,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed Lakers37c100$37 inWon+$6330444.7%136 W · 168 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Warriors63c97.78$62 inLost-$61.693145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Lakers50c97$49 inWon+$48.526545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Lakers50c82.86$41 inWon+$41.436132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Warriors37c80.47$30 inLost-$30.041,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2c3…897bbacked Lakers49c76.8$38 inWon+$39.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Warriors51c57.09$29 inLost-$29.1245542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Warriors25c54.93$14 inLost-$13.6376653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Warriors25c53.38$14 inLost-$13.5516242.6%69 W · 93 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Warriors39c50.02$20 inLost-$19.7611233.9%38 W · 74 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c29…f645backed Warriors22c50$11 inLost-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33fe…0cccbacked Warriors49c47.48$23 inLost-$23.279827.6%27 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a5e…f08abacked Warriors42c46.92$20 inLost-$19.892853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Lakers57c34$19 inWon+$14.6280440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Lakers57c33.31$19 inWon+$14.4278639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Lakers72c31.34$23 inWon+$8.6810560%63 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Lakers51c27$14 inWon+$13.2345544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa538…1ee9backed Lakers69c22.77$16 inWon+$7.061369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lakers62c22.75$14 inWon+$8.671,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Lakers56c22.17$12 inWon+$9.6717553.7%94 W · 81 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf245…746bbacked Lakers61c20$12 inWon+$7.820655.3%114 W · 92 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Lakers51c19.66$10 inWon+$9.6310637.7%40 W · 66 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Lakers77c14.09$11 inWon+$3.242770.4%19 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.