NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57806cf3a2f29261ef4e764a8ec4f7be486493920718cf6b41c017e9a99aac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Warriors, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers | 55c | 1,406$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Lakers | 75c | 1,358$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.75 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Warriors | 45c | 889.3$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 45c | 533.74$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers | 58c | 487.4$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.71 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Warriors | 46c | 472.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.21 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Lakers | 56c | 389.5$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.41 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Lakers | 70c | 386.29$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 27c | 352.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Warriors | 44c | 342.09$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 42c | 263.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Warriors | 42c | 231.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Warriors | 24c | 196.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Warriors | 22c | 181.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 443 | 47.2%209 W · 234 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Lakers | 56c | 181.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Warriors | 23c | 175.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Warriors | 23c | 172.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Warriors | 24c | 160.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…eb04backed Warriors | 35c | 137.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Warriors | 44c | 125.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Warriors | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Warriors | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be5…603dbacked Lakers | 59c | 84.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Lakers | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Warriors | 31c | 63.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lakers | 56c | 55.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Lakers | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2b…6df5backed Lakers | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Warriors | 44c | 43.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Warriors | 45c | 36.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Warriors | 44c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Warriors | 44c | 33.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Lakers | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Lakers | 75c | 31.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Lakers | 58c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Lakers | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Warriors | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Lakers | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Lakers won
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Lakers vs. WarriorsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Lakers won
- Stephen Curry: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Stephen Curry: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.