Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf3828a8923a1ec440695980ad159404b733a5c30907ccafa1cbe4d8dc9dc8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,384$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 62c | 1,127$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.47 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 35c | 857.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.58 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 815.71$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 804.82$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.72 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 40c | 598.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.9 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 76c | 511.38$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 509.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 493.04$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 487.81$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 461.14$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.13 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 330.14$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 8c | 289.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 285.32$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 275.56$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 251.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 28c | 240.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.37 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 43c | 234$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 37c | 203.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 194$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 153.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 147$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 126.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 124.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 119.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…0003backed No | 65c | 119.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 113.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 68c | 106$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 101.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed No | 72c | 94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 90.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 50c | 85.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 52c | 84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 82.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 78.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 74.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 70.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 64.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…2550backed Yes | 16c | 62.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 60.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 39c | 54.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 37c | 53.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…dc91backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 46.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2f8dbacked Yes | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 42c | 36.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 62c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…3dcabacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 75c | 25.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3a…a4cdbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…c435backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 18.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.