Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac69ad8c8a0b76c3c4254dfc43750fb59b2174e6e559e3ca39495ccc0f7948ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 2,549$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 55c | 2,459$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.82 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 51c | 1,100$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.02 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 1,073$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 58c | 1,042$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 34c | 1,019$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 52c | 907.1$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.05 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 46c | 877.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.7 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 755.79$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.73 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 689$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 15c | 539.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 521.32$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 478.72$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 428$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.72 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 44c | 400.23$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.89 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 379.98$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 332.6$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 320.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 283.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 282.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 40c | 232.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 232.5$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 229.14$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 18c | 214.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 41c | 200.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 178$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 14c | 172.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 168.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 54c | 164.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 54c | 159$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 143.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 143$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 73c | 137.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 135.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 74c | 134.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 123.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 53c | 105.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 55c | 100.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 83.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked No | 51c | 82.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 78.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 76.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 48c | 73.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 57c | 52.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 49.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 56c | 45.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 55c | 45.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 45.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 40.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 44c | 38.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 51c | 37.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 44c | 37.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 43c | 32.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 31.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 52c | 25.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 69c | 24.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 23.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 49c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…c1c8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…864dbacked Yes | 55c | 18.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.