Tennis · resolved market
Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf46922ecf70b0055b10fad8774c0e23d69a08010bfde11c98cf9eaff6d79e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Over 4.5 | 21c | 1,209$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.1 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 4.5 | 80c | 649.79$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…ff98backed Over 4.5 | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 4.5 | 78c | 473.51$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…58eebacked Under 4.5 | 78c | 307.69$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Over 4.5 | 49c | 250.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 166.4$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 336 | 50.9%171 W · 165 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89a…928abacked Over 4.5 | 21c | 144.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0320…3757backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Over 4.5 | 43c | 112.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Under 4.5 | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under 4.5 | 50c | 98.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…a216backed Over 4.5 | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 4.5 | 54c | 93.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over 4.5 | 22c | 87.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under 4.5 | 78c | 64.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 4.5 | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under 4.5 | 79c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 4.5 | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Arthur Fery vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Fery vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Fery vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Fery vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Fery vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Fery vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fery vs ZverevZverev won
- Set 2 Winner: Fery vs ZverevZverev won
- Set 3 Winner: Fery vs ZverevZverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5)Zverev won
- Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Fery (+2.5)Zverev won
- Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Alexander ZverevAlexander Zverev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.