Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6c051895e857b4006871a300233a74857464bd5565e90be0f4eadd56c3984c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.91 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 4,026$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.34 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 24c | 3,835$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.62 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 77c | 2,936$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 77c | 2,774$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.02 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 31c | 1,619$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.03 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 30c | 1,042$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.39 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,039$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.06 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 77c | 976.63$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 77c | 777$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 76c | 504.73$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 23c | 320.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 19c | 293.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 21c | 275.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 22c | 268.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 79c | 245$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Yes | 24c | 163$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 76c | 155.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 77c | 138.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 21c | 137.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed No | 79c | 130.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed No | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 32c | 104.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 31c | 102.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 77c | 99.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 23c | 86.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 27c | 84.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…5dcebacked No | 77c | 77.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 78c | 65.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Yes | 25c | 64.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 76c | 61.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed No | 77c | 61.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 40.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 35.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 28.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 77c | 22.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 77c | 22.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…10d3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5437…6e45backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 77c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-19?Yes won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.