Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00326a064636bc1534a0c290ca8130c1423c0d825c5aa8131b8902f5d45c9c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,830$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.09 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 1,641$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 10c | 1,229$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 45c | 1,024$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.76 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 907.27$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 629.12$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 612.6$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 510.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 40c | 488.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.63 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 487.79$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.84 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 463.39$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 386.46$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 366$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 62c | 354.63$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 343.45$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 336$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 327.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 308.82$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.22 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 47c | 299.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.16 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 278.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 13c | 263.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 59c | 258.4$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 255.46$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 42c | 251.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.42 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 232.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 42c | 228$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.77 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 212.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 55c | 205$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 200.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 44c | 198$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 197.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 196$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 192.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 43c | 189.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 174.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 58c | 173.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 34c | 170$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 15c | 165.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 30c | 164.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 159.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 155.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 32c | 154.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 68c | 145.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 35c | 143.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 70c | 143.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 43c | 142.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 51c | 142.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 33c | 136.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 135.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 42c | 132$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 130.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 129.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 123.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 51c | 122.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 122.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 117.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 14c | 116.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 115.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 115.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 115.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 14c | 114.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 54c | 110.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 46c | 108.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 40c | 108.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 50c | 103.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 101.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 49c | 98.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 97.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 90.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 26c | 90.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 89.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 86.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes | 50c | 85.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 84.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 79.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 56c | 70.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 61c | 66.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 62.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 61.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 74c | 58.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked No | 62c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 48c | 55.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bac…a291backed Yes | 49c | 54.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 53.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 51c | 53.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 57c | 52.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.