Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58e7196a8c9d14130e58b5d3619c88b627d572d8963bfe0acb173b1d8181aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 1,834$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 894.77$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 28c | 757.4$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.37 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 612.6$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 567.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 553.21$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 409.03$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 32c | 375.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 370.95$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 334.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 331.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 13c | 317.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed Yes | 4c | 299$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 281.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x280c…169cbacked Yes | 11c | 273.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 10c | 246.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 245.43$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 233.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 233.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 38c | 221.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 219.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 17c | 203.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 201.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 190.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 176.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 159$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 155.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 67c | 152$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 75c | 144.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 26c | 141.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 70c | 141$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 38c | 136$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 130.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 126.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 72c | 125.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 10c | 111.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 18c | 111.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 110.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 17c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 18c | 102$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 101.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 37c | 100.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 97.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 48c | 96.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 70c | 94.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 91.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 88.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 87.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 46c | 87.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 16c | 84.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 12c | 83.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 79.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576d…adddbacked No | 79c | 77.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 35c | 69.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 67.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 74c | 67.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 61.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 32c | 61.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 37c | 60.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 56.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 55.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 52.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 49.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 48.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 59c | 47.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 41.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…c1bebacked No | 78c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 62c | 36.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 77c | 35.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 29.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 28.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…4172backed No | 62c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.