TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9zof PARIVISION, 9z
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$615,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$646,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $615,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 478 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked 9z46c246,579$113,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,999.3242440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION54c80,000$43,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,30076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed PARIVISION0c68,980$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.984553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked PARIVISION71c40,000$28,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,40038358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION46c26,747$12,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,373.073,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 9z57c25,000$14,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,749.9975652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked PARIVISION48c15,870$7,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,577.9915050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked PARIVISION71c14,164$9,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,994.815,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d4d…8525backed PARIVISION46c13,261$6,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0801942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked PARIVISION45c12,402$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,550.122,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed 9z57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,30023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed PARIVISION71c10,000$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,10037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed PARIVISION43c9,705$4,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,203.1417737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked 9z29c9,500$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,779.7684454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 9z51c9,129$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.591,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 9z49c9,000$4,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,554.6588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 9z51c7,783$3,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.591,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked PARIVISION71c7,065$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked PARIVISION43c6,252$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.366947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked 9z30c6,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.9819757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION52c5,924$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.115,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56df…22c3backed PARIVISION40c5,769$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.79045.6%41 W · 49 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed PARIVISION18c5,630$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010055%55 W · 45 L+13.5wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+28.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked PARIVISION46c5,586$2,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.8427658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b3…039cbacked PARIVISION43c5,543$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.145742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 9z54c5,291$2,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.871,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked PARIVISION71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,55019351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed PARIVISION71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.9737946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION46c4,600$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.861,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked PARIVISION44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00016248.1%78 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed PARIVISION44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x008b…c1cfbacked PARIVISION43c4,536$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.486355.6%35 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed PARIVISION44c4,445$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.825248.8%123 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed PARIVISION46c4,397$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.5587047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked 9z29c4,288$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.4912449.2%61 W · 63 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 9z53c3,982$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.471,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked PARIVISION29c3,742$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.661,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked PARIVISION44c3,738$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,642.191643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 9z51c3,345$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,622.9559839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed 9z52c2,932$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.921,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…dc9abacked PARIVISION44c2,928$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.531060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 9z60c2,824$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.752,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed 9z29c2,600$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84612253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…ba86backed PARIVISION43c2,561$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a4…9aabbacked PARIVISION52c2,460$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.187054.3%38 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed PARIVISION44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed PARIVISION45c2,220$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.278226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed PARIVISION48c2,168$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION36c2,143$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.036,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked PARIVISION9c2,021$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.565,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed PARIVISION50c2,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.984546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 9z30c1,995$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.821,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 9z54c1,987$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.161,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff4…d735backed PARIVISION8c1,976$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.624122%9 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed PARIVISION70c1,930$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.2355845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a1…3e40backed PARIVISION59c1,871$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.752755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 9z44c1,800$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.312,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked 9z38c1,723$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.293938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-32.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f8d…01debacked PARIVISION67c1,718$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.686737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked PARIVISION49c1,704$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.974517.8%8 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked PARIVISION70c1,693$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.441650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+310.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked 9z48c1,637$786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.245444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed PARIVISION49c1,602$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.791,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e23…e933backed PARIVISION70c1,526$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.7812660.3%76 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed 9z57c1,520$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.4320249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x836c…acffbacked PARIVISION48c1,513$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.782040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed PARIVISION46c1,507$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.913562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66025555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION6c1,419$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.932,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed PARIVISION44c1,353$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.242142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed 9z47c1,328$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8152951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb399…0817backed 9z67c1,172$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.01366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked PARIVISION44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked PARIVISION59c1,100$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.52152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked 9z61c1,064$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.55853.4%31 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked PARIVISION44c1,064$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.088459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a1…73dbbacked 9z57c1,047$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+131.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed PARIVISION60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed 9z29c1,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71028738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43081244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b3…b3a2backed PARIVISION34c999.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34018547%87 W · 98 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked PARIVISION69c999.97$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.6555843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a0…4469backed PARIVISION71c977$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.6714759.2%87 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c4…0734backed PARIVISION44c966.27$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.1618848.4%91 W · 97 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed PARIVISION53c952.04$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56da…449ebacked 9z37c948.32$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.831650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed 9z28c894.92$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.3525145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked 9z47c865.51$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.771,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked PARIVISION33c850$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.558254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3056…4fefbacked 9z30c828.67$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.07837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…e12dbacked PARIVISION70c828.67$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.074042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba0c…7800backed PARIVISION54c800$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4334951%25 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed PARIVISION52c800$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4175850%29 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe337…1f6fbacked 9z29c799.98$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.9926341.1%108 W · 155 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed PARIVISION44c779.55$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34398856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed PARIVISION38c778.31$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0615436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6f…f0f0backed PARIVISION65c769.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006949.3%34 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed 9z31c757$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.0957641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed PARIVISION57c732.88$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.7410748.6%52 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 9z35c728.87$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.387,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.