TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Canadian Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sho Shimabukuroof Sho Shimabukuro, Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x772b…1840backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer5c5,491$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009136.3%33 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer38c4,449$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.0311,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer1c4,118$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710531.4%33 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer22c3,023$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.578,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Sho Shimabukuro58c2,937$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.6272040.8%294 W · 426 L+2.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Sho Shimabukuro57c2,467$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.624,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sho Shimabukuro59c2,009$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.414,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Sho Shimabukuro56c1,823$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.3725852.7%136 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c1,818$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.1894355.7%525 W · 418 L+22.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Sho Shimabukuro55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1814152.5%74 W · 67 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer43c1,750$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.492,44451.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009757.9%77 W · 898 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe585…09efbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer10c1,640$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Sho Shimabukuro64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.520749.8%103 W · 104 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer43c1,344$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.772,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Sho Shimabukuro57c1,204$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.721,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sho Shimabukuro74c1,188$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.199,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer46c780.18$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.31,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer14c719.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.395,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer7c708.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6121655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d4…8172backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer12c670$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.44513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.37,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer14c557.52$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.82,06946.7%966 W · 1,103 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c380.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.617,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffe…a60fbacked Sho Shimabukuro71c333.27$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6516967.5%114 W · 55 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Sho Shimabukuro68c325.04$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0473558.6%431 W · 304 L-26.1wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Sho Shimabukuro63c316$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.121,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Sho Shimabukuro68c294.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9128754.7%157 W · 130 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer41c291.23$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12045139%176 W · 275 L+1.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedec…3b5fbacked Sho Shimabukuro55c273.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.275950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer8c272.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.873,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer35c271.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.969433%31 W · 63 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabe3…c19abacked Sho Shimabukuro55c223.22$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.454742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Sho Shimabukuro57c219.86$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8692953.5%497 W · 432 L-4.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer22c208.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8365942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73e5…e3d8backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer8c204.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2233550.7%170 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer32c200.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.144,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b96…cea8backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206731.3%21 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer16c199.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.71,76645.9%810 W · 956 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer24c199.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.746,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Sho Shimabukuro77c195.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9745553%241 W · 214 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e0…8573backed Sho Shimabukuro61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.937058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf30…5c23backed Sho Shimabukuro56c157.38$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.88844.3%39 W · 49 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048258.1%280 W · 202 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Sho Shimabukuro56c140.41$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2211058.2%64 W · 46 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c120$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.463537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer15c115$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7595047.7%453 W · 497 L+34.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d7…c129backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer12c114.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Sho Shimabukuro53c100.32$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.732,04347.8%977 W · 1,066 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Sho Shimabukuro61c99.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.15,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer33c84.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.516,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer47c78.19$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7531347.6%149 W · 164 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c73.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.566552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Sho Shimabukuro62c68.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.132,08754.1%1,130 W · 957 L+64.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer44c66.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2353847%253 W · 285 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3b…9035backed Sho Shimabukuro78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.131355.3%173 W · 140 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer41c58.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8143144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9272047.9%345 W · 375 L-2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c54.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3919347.2%91 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer29c53.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.551942.6%221 W · 298 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a20…d606backed Sho Shimabukuro77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.592674.6%691 W · 235 L+1.7wins0.00per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda24…7e54backed Sho Shimabukuro59c49.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.14153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Sho Shimabukuro53c49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0336348.2%175 W · 188 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ec3…e330backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer37c45.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8143947.2%207 W · 232 L-1.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…f00bbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer34c44.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa63d…d405backed Sho Shimabukuro60c41.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.777661.8%47 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer35c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,90444.1%839 W · 1,065 L-16.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…c29fbacked Sho Shimabukuro64c37.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x305b…cd21backed Sho Shimabukuro54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0455059.1%325 W · 225 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4383…dbddbacked Sho Shimabukuro55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.365064%32 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer29c35.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110052%52 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Sho Shimabukuro68c33.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7112452.4%65 W · 59 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…a082backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.144363.4%281 W · 162 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Sho Shimabukuro54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.837060%222 W · 148 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x829a…a748backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer38c29.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3714449.3%71 W · 73 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Sho Shimabukuro59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.426347.6%30 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer45c24.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9333165%215 W · 116 L+22.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed Nicolai Budkov Kjaer44c23.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8087…a213backed Sho Shimabukuro71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0938866.2%257 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Sho Shimabukuro70c20.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.171,12056.5%633 W · 487 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…e4d0backed Sho Shimabukuro67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.552777.8%21 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Sho Shimabukuro74c17.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.522,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.