NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd11a68a4ebf6d1d8c28d790c17b2deef125918cdb23b89716e6ed9551fb2bf0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6557…0999backed Over | 52c | 4,253$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.67 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 48c | 2,305$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.34 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 47c | 788.01$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.37 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over | 50c | 776$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Under | 26c | 705.44$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.83 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 538.44$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 45c | 270.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 50c | 245.35$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 57c | 233.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 52c | 233.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 215.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 48c | 203.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 182.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 52c | 140.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 47c | 51.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 53c | 50.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 62 | 77.4%48 W · 14 L | +13.1wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 40.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 52c | 31.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | -17.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Under | 48c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 329 | 57.4%189 W · 140 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5this page
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. RocketsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.