NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9cdd9504f57785f13fa99d6e98ed32ec6ff7907f537346e687e235f8af73d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Rockets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x299f…2140backed Timberwolves | 56c | 11,250$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950.02 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 42c | 3,218$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Rockets | 48c | 2,049$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.75 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,781$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Rockets | 44c | 1,720$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.86 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Rockets | 44c | 1,147$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.57 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Rockets | 44c | 1,073$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Rockets | 35c | 1,063$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.66 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 843.29$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.35 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Rockets | 44c | 627$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Rockets | 44c | 627$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Rockets | 44c | 627$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Rockets | 44c | 627$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Rockets | 44c | 626.74$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Rockets | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 232 | 51.7%120 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Rockets | 44c | 573.36$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves | 53c | 517.26$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Timberwolves | 63c | 326.51$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Rockets | 20c | 215.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 57c | 157.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Rockets | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Rockets | 44c | 113.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Rockets | 15c | 100.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Timberwolves | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Rockets | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Rockets | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Timberwolves | 54c | 88.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Rockets | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Rockets | 44c | 74.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Timberwolves | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rockets | 26c | 62.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 58.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves | 62c | 56.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Rockets | 45c | 41.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rockets | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Rockets | 44c | 32.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Timberwolves | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Rockets | 46c | 28.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Rockets | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Rockets | 47c | 27.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Timberwolves | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Timberwolves | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Timberwolves | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Timberwolves | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Rockets | 44c | 23.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Timberwolves | 57c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Timberwolves | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)this page
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. RocketsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.